[Rich]

Define win.

Zelensky has stated that pretty clearly that winning means regaining all of Ukraine's 1991 territory. Preferably he wants unlimited reparations and war crimes trials as well. Only stupid people make 100% percent predictions in war, but we can say that it is extremely unlikely that Ukraine will regain all the territory its lost since the start of the SMO, let alone the land it lost in 2014. I suggested that Ukraine should have seek to negotiate after it recaptured Kherson. Why should we do that said Ukraine's idiot leaders, we could be in Crimea by Christmas. Ukraine's leaders are totally delusional. Ukraine's position to enter into negotiations after 2 more years of fighting is weaker now not stronger. But rather admit that he was wrong Zelensky wants to gamble more Ukrainian lives, gamble away more of Ukraine getting damaged and destroyed and we let him, gamble away 100s of billions of dollars more in western aid.

[JohnRawls]

You think Trump is going to end the war in 24 hours?

I guess he really thinks he's that powerful. Dude is smoking his own crack.

Trump is unpredictable but no, he won't. As I said before the problem is that Trump needs to win and be bigger than Obama, Biden whatever. So once Putins gives him his terms that make Trump look like a clown for the world then he will be humiliated and will rage at Putin. So Trump is irrelevant in Ukranian context. He won't be able to get a deal that makes him look like a winner, a big guy etc and that can't be right for him when Putin is bigger than him and he is the clown and not Putin. He won't like hearing that "Obama was a winner but you are a looser for trying to accept this"

Although he will try to block aid for couple of months while the discussing is ongoing. So it will be bad in that context but it will probably backfire severely on Russia when he rages by providing unreasonable things in the long term of over escalation.

[Rancid]

I suggested that Ukraine should have seek to negotiate after it recaptured Kherson.

Was Putin ready to negotiate (in good faith)? What would Putin have agreed to that would guarantee long term security for Ukraine? Certainly not NATO membership. What else would have Putin been ready to compromise beyond just drawing new borders? Just drawing up and agreeing to new borders isn't a guarantee of security, sovereignty, and autonomy. Strategically speaking, borders are like the least of the issues, but that is what so many are fixated on as THE principal matter. In that context, it would be foolish for Ukraine to give up territory or signal that it is willing to without any real guarantee from Putin beyond just the border being redrawn. This would kick the imperialist can down the road.

There's just this odd thing that people believe negotiation can just happen without preconditions. The principal precondition needed is an attitude adjustment from Putin.

But anyway, round and round we go.

We've gone from Kyiv being decapitated in 3 days, to Russia getting invaded 3 years later.

[JohnRawls]

Was Putin ready to negotiate (in good faith)? What would Putin have agreed to that would guarantee long term security for Ukraine? Certainly not NATO membership. What else would have Putin been ready to compromise beyond just drawing new borders? Just drawing up and agreeing to new borders isn't a guarantee of security, sovereignty, and autonomy. Strategically speaking, borders are like the least of the issues, but that is what so many are fixated on as THE principal matter. In that context, it would be foolish for Ukraine to give up territory or signal that it is willing to without any real guarantee from Putin beyond just the border being redrawn. This would kick the imperialist can down the road.

There's just this odd thing that people believe negotiation can just happen without preconditions. The principal precondition needed is an attitude adjustment from Putin.

But anyway, round and round we go.

We've gone from Kyiv being decapitated in 3 days, to Russia getting invaded 3 years later.

I will give you a simple answer to this. A lot of people who are proposing a reasonable peace for Putin are full of shit. The simple reason is that they are projecting their own views on the peace deal from one side to the other.

Reality is that Putins motives and reasons and actions are not guided by the same principles that motivates here in the West.

You are not dealing with Liberal Democrat vs Liberal Democrat, you are dealing with Liberal Democrat vs Mob boss. His thinking is not our thinking, his motivations are not our motivations.

And we have to take that in to account before we even start to make a deal because fundamentally mob bosses do not care about deals in the first place. He didn't start the war to let his country prosper or his people to live a better life but to simply stay in power and expand his grandeur for history.

You know, I somehow think that the Cold War was simpler. Everyone knew that Communists on one side, Capitalists on the other and weirdos of third way are irrelevant but the fight was to tilt them to one camp or the other and based their analysis on that. Nowadays people are dumb enough to think that the other side thinks like us and has same motivators but that is furthest from the truth and breaks all analysis on the situation.

[Hakeer]

I will give you a simple answer to this. A lot of people who are proposing a reasonable peace for Putin are full of shit. The simple reason is that they are projecting their own views on the peace deal from one side to the other.

Reality is that Putins motives and reasons and actions are not guided by the same principles that motivates here in the West.

You are not dealing with Liberal Democrat vs Liberal Democrat, you are dealing with Liberal Democrat vs Mob boss. His thinking is not our thinking, his motivations are not our motivations.

And we have to take that in to account before we even start to make a deal because fundamentally mob bosses do not care about deals in the first place. He didn't start the war to let his country prosper or his people to live a better life but to simply stay in power and expand his grandeur for history.

You know, I somehow think that the Cold War was simpler. Everyone knew that Communists on one side, Capitalists on the other and weirdos of third way are irrelevant but the fight was to tilt them to one camp or the other and based their analysis on that. Nowadays people are dumb enough to think that the other side thinks like us and has same motivators but that is furthest from the truth and breaks all analysis on the situation.

Right now, both sides believe they can win a clear military victory. Nothing to talk about until that changes.

With U.S. and Europe helping Ukraine and China and Iran helping Russia militarily & other countries buying Russian oil, this war can continue for years. The wildcard is Ukraine hitting Moscow with long-range artillery. That’s the next stage of the war. Zelenskyy says his victory plan is to convince Putin he can’t win. Putin alternative plan is to wait out the West until we give up providing any more help to Ukraine. It could end either way.