[GandalfTheGrey]

How can it not have material impact on Donbass if Russia is using 30 thousand troops and its better units like VDV to attack now in Kursk? If Kursk wasn't there then where do you think they would be attacking?

The facts on the ground speak for themselves - and Russia is advancing in the Donbas, 30k troops in Kursk or not.

Either one of two things is happening: either those 30k troops don't make a difference to their offensive capability in the Donbas, or maybe it does - but Ukraine defenders have already been attritted to such an extent that Russia can continue to advance even with a depleted force. Either scenario is pretty dire for Ukraine. Honestly I'm wondering if their lines are going to hold this year. Best case, the Russians will be slowed down enough by the Autumn and winter mud, and the fresh recruits from Ukraine's recent mobilization will have time to reinforce their lines next year.

[JohnRawls]

Famous last words.

In what world do you live in? Have you ever seen in history a corrupt person that doesn't live for his money?(Why did he steal it in the first place then?) Russian elite is basically one corrupt circle. Putin lives for his corrupt money and so does his inner circle of people running the country. It is insane to suggest that they will sacrifice their live and money to fire the nukes. Lets pretend the worst case scenario when Putin is insane and even all of his other people as in minister of defense and the 3rd guy that holds the key are also insane, then the generals have to execute but they are also corrupt and steal money left and right. All can't be insane.

You literally need over 40+ high ranking people to literally be insane while at the same time around 100+ middle personal also have to be insane to do this. I love your fantasies but it is not gonna happen. 80-90% of those people steal money and live for corruption like literally in hundreds of millions to billions of rubles.

[JohnRawls]

The facts on the ground speak for themselves - and Russia is advancing in the Donbas, 30k troops in Kursk or not.

Either one of two things is happening: either those 30k troops don't make a difference to their offensive capability in the Donbas, or maybe it does - but Ukraine defenders have already been attritted to such an extent that Russia can continue to advance even with a depleted force. Either scenario is pretty dire for Ukraine. Honestly I'm wondering if their lines are going to hold this year. Best case, the Russians will be slowed down enough by the Autumn and winter mud, and the fresh recruits from Ukraine's recent mobilization will have time to reinforce their lines next year.

I already answered why. The reason why Ukraine is slowly retreating and Russia is advancing is because of Russian simple tactic. They level everything to rubble so there is 0 cover be it forsts, cities or even fortifications. Its a very slow process and costs a lot of resources but it works if Russia had infinite resources and infinite money which they don't. The reason it gets so bad for them in bigger villages like Avdiivka or Bakhmut is because it takes a shit ton of ammo and guided bombs to level larger villages with concrete buildings.

But don't kid yourself, this is a loosing strategy to bomb and then send small units to try to infiltrate because the casualty rate is through the roof, you basically capture land with 0 things standing so its useless and in general it is a very dumb resource intensive way of fighting. Russia just simply has no resources to do this to capture anything significant like an Oblast centre. Every time they do this, the land that is scorched basically increases between them and their supply line. Also the land that is destroyed to 0 holds 0 value.

[litwin]

https://x.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1838270298832998702

[JohnRawls]

Well Russia is going to spend 65% of its Budget on just two things: the military and domestic security and only 35% for everything else

This basically settles it, if Trump looses or wins and doesn't really go for negotiations while dropping support for Ukraine while forcing Europe to do the same then Russia won't last long like this.

If Harris wins then Russia is basically toast.

[litwin]

Super excited to be here guys.... Where's my ensure protein shake?


https://x.com/YizhakSquad/status/1838695836076630273

[litwin]

[GandalfTheGrey]

I already answered why. The reason why Ukraine is slowly retreating and Russia is advancing is because of Russian simple tactic. They level everything to rubble so there is 0 cover be it forsts, cities or even fortifications. Its a very slow process and costs a lot of resources but it works if Russia had infinite resources and infinite money which they don't. The reason it gets so bad for them in bigger villages like Avdiivka or Bakhmut is because it takes a shit ton of ammo and guided bombs to level larger villages with concrete buildings.

But don't kid yourself, this is a loosing strategy to bomb and then send small units to try to infiltrate because the casualty rate is through the roof, you basically capture land with 0 things standing so its useless and in general it is a very dumb resource intensive way of fighting. Russia just simply has no resources to do this to capture anything significant like an Oblast centre. Every time they do this, the land that is scorched basically increases between them and their supply line. Also the land that is destroyed to 0 holds 0 value.

Point taken. Yet the fact remains, while casualty rates for Russia are no doubt through the roof, they are also horrendous and probably not sustainable for the defending Ukrainians - who started out with a hell of a lot less resources than the Russians. Acknowledged that the casualties rates are a lot higher for the Russians, but the question is, is it so much that it is causing the Russians to wear down at a faster rate than the Ukrainians? I just don't know. I just can't shake this nagging thought that the Ukrainians will reach critical mass for total collapse before the Russians will. Which of course is the entire strategy of the Russians.

[JohnRawls]

Point taken. Yet the fact remains, while casualty rates for Russia are no doubt through the roof, they are also horrendous and probably not sustainable for the defending Ukrainians - who started out with a hell of a lot less resources than the Russians. Acknowledged that the casualties rates are a lot higher for the Russians, but the question is, is it so much that it is causing the Russians to wear down at a faster rate than the Ukrainians? I just don't know. I just can't shake this nagging thought that the Ukrainians will reach critical mass for total collapse before the Russians will. Which of course is the entire strategy of the Russians.

That is a very good question and at the start I would have said more no than yes but nowadays I am not so sure with all aid taken in to account. The casualty rates on the defense for Ukraine is from 1 to 3 to 1 to 10 in their favour depending on place.

On the offensive Ukraine was 1 to 1 on losses with Russians.

[Rich]

but the question is, is it so much that it is causing the Russians to wear down at a faster rate than the Ukrainians? I just don't know. I just can't shake this nagging thought that the Ukrainians will reach critical mass for total collapse before the Russians will. Which of course is the entire strategy of the Russians.

This war is about territory. When either side is doing badly in terms of territory, the fanbois of the side that's doing badly resort to fantasy narratives to explain why they're really winning when in fact they're losing. I understood this was about territory right from the beginning. its about seizing territory and holding territory. It seemed that Putin had grasped this when he seized Crimea, but it turned out that he hadn't. Once the Donbas uprising happened, the Ukrainian nationalists grasped the truth and acted accordingly.

Putin took a long time to fully grasp this truth that this is about territory and little else. A very long time. Putin was no doubt comforted in his delusions, by both his fanbois and his enemies nonsense that he was playing some form of 3d chess. Ukraine lost a lot of territory in 2014, this wasn't because Putin was a strategic genius, some sort of mastermind, criminal or otherwise, but simply that Russia's had a massive power advantage over the Ukrainian nationalists. A position of great advantage that Putin preceded to squander away over the next eight and half years.

Of course for the Liberal idiots that pass themselves off as expert analysts, Putin's announcement of the annexations of the four oblasts at the end of September 2022 may have seemed pretty silly, especially as he was about to lose the control of the capital of one of the four. But this was a vitally important statement. This was Putin announcing to Russians and to Ukrainian supporters in Russian controlled territory that he finally got it. That this was a war about seizing territory and properly defending territory.

Neither side is going to negotiate away land. Neither side is going to trade land for peace or anything else for that matter. In fact over time I've come to doubt that Russia and Ukraine will even be capable of trading land for land. If Ukraine still holds 1991 Russian territory at the time of the ceasefire, I think its very likely that land will remain permanently part of Ukraine.

[Negotiator]

Zelensky is clearly in a panic, which explains the Kursk experiment.

The west is clearly in a panic, which explains why Macron tried to send NATO troups into Ukraine and why Starmer tried to attack core Russia with Stormshadows.

The last idiotic scheme of the west is to get Ukraine into NATO. Russia knows its winning, so why would they stop just because Ukraine is in NATO ? Ukraine cannot be allowed into NATO - and point nuclear weapons at Russia - is literally the main reason for the war.

And Russia is a nuclear superpower. They dont actually have to fear us.

And yet in this thread there are still plenty people who cant figure out what even Zelensky has figured out. And boy did it take Zelensky a long time to get there.



The former leader of the ukrainian military and now ukrainian ambassador to the UK Zulushny is back and claiming that he advised Zelensky against doing the Kursk operation.

This is most likely just another of Zulushnys usual tricks though. He always claims that he opposed a failed operation ... after it already has failed. He never actually stopped Zelenskys schemes though and happily takes credit if they succeed. Which by my count was so far just once, in September 2022, when they had their single actual victory against Russia after Russia didnt protect a part of the frontline well enough.



I dont get the "famous last words" joke. It would be everyones last words. I could probably laugh if I was living on another planet and point and say "Why have they been so dumb ? Well now they're all dead. But how could they not see it coming ?". No such luxury if you live on the same planet. One better hopes that Russia indeed doesnt use their nuclear potential.

Btw I was very delighted recently when somebody else got what nuclear winter is. I didnt even have to explain it to them first. Usually I try to explain it to people and they still dont get it. Its so simple, one can explain it to a three year old. But somehow it just doesnt sink in.

[Negotiator]

Why yes, Scott Ritter is victim of a politcal smear campaign against him.

He was given a penalty without any evidence.

When the comittee asked him to admit guilt, he gave him the complete documentation of his legal case. He said he admitted to everything proven in there. Now they should show please show him where there would be any evidence that he actually commited the crime he was sent to prison for.

He came free without admitting to guilt. Which is usually completely impossible for this crime.

This is lawfare, a purely political case. Just like the cases against Trump. Just like the Jan 6 cases.

Really almost everyone I still have any form of trust toward was victim to one smear campaign or another. Except, thinking about it, the Duran, and some lesser known sources.

But everybody else, 'Die Nachdenkseiten' here in Germany, Sahra Wagenknecht, Juliane Assange, Edward Snowden, the Jimmy Dore show, Joe Rogan, Russel Brand, George Galloway, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK jr, The Grayzone, etc etc etc, they all got attacked in one way or another. Heck you can count Alex Jones among them, though I've only seen him once, when he was on the Jimmy Dore show.

I'm kind of expecting it at this point. If you speak the truth, you'll be smeared.

And it sometimes works. I think its the real reason why Bernie Sanders was such a complete failure. He couldnt handle the pressure.

[ingliz]

I don't get the "famous last words" joke.

I have lived a life. There is no rage against the dying of the light for me, I have no fear of death. And as the Quran [5:32] rightly says, "Whoever slays a soul it shall be as if he had slain all mankind." So, whether it's just me or everyone dying it makes not a ha'porth of difference. Not being a people person I can shed crocodile tears over or laugh at people's stupidity.

I prefer to laugh.

[JohnRawls]

Speaking of Vuhledar @ingliz @Rich @GandalfTheGrey

While we were talking about it, the last Russian stronghold fell in Volchansk North of Kharkov so basically the Russians have been pushed out on one side basically with there being only grey zone between the border and Volchansk. So the only thing that is really left out of Russian "Kharkov offensive" is a couple of villages near the border on the other side and Vovchansk side is basically cleared out.