- 02 Jan 2022 19:29
#15205613
Just an old, sweet song...
I don't say China is Fascist, mostly because it's more of a distraction than a help.
I will point out that Xi is a dictator, and that if you google 14 Traits of Fascism, he ticks a lot of the boxes.
But I am digressing already, sorry. Not why I'm here..
I think China is chest deep in doo doo. They have a ton of problems, severe ones.
They also have a history of collapse, and one of those was caused by the West. That's one of their great fears.
And that's the how and why Xi became dictator. When a country gets into trouble, sometimes they give power to a guy that promises to get them out of trouble. Here's the thing, until recently the Western educated Xi had excellent personal relationships with the West.
They say there are two tragedies in life, not getting what you want, and getting what you want. He got what he wanted, and once he was in power, found it was too late. So now he's trying to hold it together, and hoping to get lucky. Or something like that.
But he's in a bind, a number of them. The Chinese government exerts too much control over the economy, which resulted in a massive real estate bubble. More control is unlikely to help. Neither is throwing good money after bad, I suspect they are throwing a LOT of money into real estate.
This is minor, but the mantra of modern economies is transparency. Most countries fall short, America certainly does. But China keeps a ton of stuff hidden, and it's figures are not always accurate when they do report.
China needs to move an insane amount of water from Northern China to Southern China. They have one big project, they need several. They need it a lot more than adding more bullet trains. Or big expansions in their military, for that matter.
They have a real problem with the quality of construction. They've grown so fast that the regulation we slowly developed is anemic. When they finally shift to being a mature economy, that means construction will slow down, and that means they will have tons of trouble finding money to replace dams that collapse, for example. Not to mention how they are going to manage their real estate situation when the bubble bursts, and the poor quality of construction suddenly becomes important when you're going to be living there indefinitely. There hasn't been an incentive to build buildings that will last. Remember how my country freaked out when part of that condo collapsed in the Miami area? Expect a lot of that, and more than a few people to get turned into tomato paste under tons of debris. That is demoralising.
All of this doesn't really change what we have to do. We made Asian economic growth possible, starting after WW2. And we are still trying to keep the peace. Yes, we have many flaws and we've made horrible mistakes. But ask Taiwan, the Phillipines, Japan, Vietnam or even India if they want us to pick up our toys and go home. Before Xi, most of them were sucking up to China, but that has changed.
If you want to know what I am keeping an eye on, it's not the South China sea. Well, I am, obviously, but what has me worried is the aggression against India. India won't tolerate that for long.
We could get dragged into it, and I doubt it would stay non-nuclear.
I don't say China is Fascist, mostly because it's more of a distraction than a help.
I will point out that Xi is a dictator, and that if you google 14 Traits of Fascism, he ticks a lot of the boxes.
But I am digressing already, sorry. Not why I'm here..
I think China is chest deep in doo doo. They have a ton of problems, severe ones.
They also have a history of collapse, and one of those was caused by the West. That's one of their great fears.
And that's the how and why Xi became dictator. When a country gets into trouble, sometimes they give power to a guy that promises to get them out of trouble. Here's the thing, until recently the Western educated Xi had excellent personal relationships with the West.
They say there are two tragedies in life, not getting what you want, and getting what you want. He got what he wanted, and once he was in power, found it was too late. So now he's trying to hold it together, and hoping to get lucky. Or something like that.
But he's in a bind, a number of them. The Chinese government exerts too much control over the economy, which resulted in a massive real estate bubble. More control is unlikely to help. Neither is throwing good money after bad, I suspect they are throwing a LOT of money into real estate.
This is minor, but the mantra of modern economies is transparency. Most countries fall short, America certainly does. But China keeps a ton of stuff hidden, and it's figures are not always accurate when they do report.
China needs to move an insane amount of water from Northern China to Southern China. They have one big project, they need several. They need it a lot more than adding more bullet trains. Or big expansions in their military, for that matter.
They have a real problem with the quality of construction. They've grown so fast that the regulation we slowly developed is anemic. When they finally shift to being a mature economy, that means construction will slow down, and that means they will have tons of trouble finding money to replace dams that collapse, for example. Not to mention how they are going to manage their real estate situation when the bubble bursts, and the poor quality of construction suddenly becomes important when you're going to be living there indefinitely. There hasn't been an incentive to build buildings that will last. Remember how my country freaked out when part of that condo collapsed in the Miami area? Expect a lot of that, and more than a few people to get turned into tomato paste under tons of debris. That is demoralising.
All of this doesn't really change what we have to do. We made Asian economic growth possible, starting after WW2. And we are still trying to keep the peace. Yes, we have many flaws and we've made horrible mistakes. But ask Taiwan, the Phillipines, Japan, Vietnam or even India if they want us to pick up our toys and go home. Before Xi, most of them were sucking up to China, but that has changed.
If you want to know what I am keeping an eye on, it's not the South China sea. Well, I am, obviously, but what has me worried is the aggression against India. India won't tolerate that for long.
We could get dragged into it, and I doubt it would stay non-nuclear.
Facts have a well known liberal bias