Sivad wrote:posted in
Well, this thread is too long, I'm not gonna go searching for it.
Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...
Sivad wrote:posted in
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:As far as I can tell, Western Europe is going for herd immunity which means that Eastern and Central Europe will probably follow in due course.
late wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
BeesKnee5 wrote:Even if 1% of cases require hospitalisation it's enough to tip most healthcare systems over the edge. Once that happens then the death rate rockets because there is insufficient capacity to save lives.
In the majority of cases, COVID-19 takes the form of a mild cold or is even symptom-free. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that all cases of infection are recorded, in contrast with deaths which are almost completely recorded. This leads to an overestimation of the CFR.
According to a study of 565 Japanese people evacuated from Wuhan, all of whom were tested (regardless of symptoms), only 9.2% of infected people were detected with currently used symptom-oriented COVID-19 monitoring [5]. This would mean that the number of infected people is likely to be about 10 times greater than the number of registered cases. The CFR would then only be about one tenth of that currently measured. Others assume an even higher number of unreported cases, which would further reduce the CFR.
Aim
To estimate the percentage of symptomatic COVID-19 cases reported in different countries using case fatality ratio estimates based on data from the ECDC, correcting for delays between confirmation-and-death.
Methods Summary
In real-time, dividing deaths-to-date by cases-to-date leads to a biased estimate of the case fatality ratio (CFR), because this calculation does not account for delays from confirmation of a case to death, and under-reporting of cases.
Using the distribution of the delay from hospitalisation-to-death for cases that are fatal, we can estimate how many cases so far are expected to have known outcomes (i.e. death or recovery), and hence adjust the naive estimates of CFR to account for these delays.
The adjusted CFR does not account for under-reporting. However, the best available estimates of CFR (adjusting or controlling for under-reporting) are in the 1% - 1.5% range. We assume a baseline CFR, taken from a large study in China, of 1.38% (95% crI: 1.23–1.53%)[1]. If a country has an adjusted CFR that is higher (e.g. 20%), it suggests that only a fraction of cases have been reported (in this case, 1.3820=6.9% cases reported approximately).
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/ ... mates.html
Patrickov wrote:Sometimes I think some PoFo members are too kind. If some members' eccentricities don't lead to harm to anybody innocent around them we probably do not need to care.
foxdemon wrote:Since you are from HK, and thus might not be familiar with American expressions, I will explain. When one says “I am concern for that person’s well being”, what that means is that the speaker believes the subject is going mad.
As in: “I am concerned for that person’s well being and hope that they receive suitable psychiatric help as soon as possible.”
Though in the context of this thread it could be taken as an ad hominem attack. But Prosthetic Conscience didn’t delete it.
blackjack21 wrote:I'm pretty sure China is lying about the case load, but this seems a bit too high: The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll. I've heard that a whole lot of urns are appearing in Wuhan as well.
annatar1914 wrote:If I recall, the original story comes from the Falun Gong and one of their papers they own. Somewhat biased. I also seem to have read somewhere that many Chinese have more than one phone, and a lot of numbers got switched off when people were ordered home for a variety of reasons.
blackjack21 wrote:I'm pretty sure China is lying about the case load, but this seems a bit too high: The Closing of 21 Million Cell Phone Accounts in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll. I've heard that a whole lot of urns are appearing in Wuhan as well.
blackjack21 wrote:Yes. That article is directly from a Falun Gong news outlet. However, I'm seeing plausible numbers like this:
Delivery of 5,000 URNS to funeral home in coronavirus epicentre Wuhan raises fears China is underplaying nation's official 3,300 death toll
It would not surprise me if China is simply outright lying about cases right now.
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