[Beren]

I guess some still hold on to that hope.

Do you mean Goldman Sachs and UBS? Maybe they just know something we don't. Also, Brexit is actually not happening, it's stuck, and even if it effectively happens some day, it will be years from now. So why would Goldman Sachs and UBS feel the urge to move to Frankfurt so quickly?

[B0ycey]

That's not a direct BoE quote as far as I can tell, but a few weeks ago the BoE deputy governor was quoted with a figure of 10,000 jobs.

It was yesterday and if I wasn't on my phone I could provide a link. But I'm sure you could Google it.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Do you mean Goldman Sachs and UBS? Maybe they just know something we don't. Also, Brexit is actually not happening, it's stuck, and even if it effectively happens some day, it will be years from now. So why would Goldman Sachs and UBS feel the urge to move to Frankfurt so quickly?

They certainly know more than we do as they have privileged access to UK and EU regulators. The UBS CEO mentioned that the bank has been told that the EU won't take a hard line on the trading and risk management businesses.

It was yesterday and if I wasn't on my phone I could provide a link. But I'm sure you could Google it.

I have looked it up and it apparently tracks back to a BBC economics correspondent who said that he understands senior people at the BoE use these figures in case there is no fin services deal. It's also a long term estimate and hence more uncertain.

[Beren]

They certainly know more than we do as they have privileged access to UK and EU regulators. The UBS CEO mentioned that the bank has been told that the EU won't take a hard line on the trading and risk management businesses.

I'm sure they trust their own influence as well as there is much uncertainty about Brexit, whereas they still have enough time to act if necessary, so I think it's still business as usual for them.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I'm sure they trust their own influence as well as there is much uncertainty about Brexit, whereas they still have enough time to act if necessary, so I think it's still business as usual for them.

They need to have contingency plans in place, so it's definitely not business as usual for them. A few thousand jobs will almost certainly go to the continent out of at least half a million financial sector jobs in the UK, but it won't be an exodus or a great calamity for the UK financial industry.

[Beren]

They need to have contingency plans in place, so it's definitely not business as usual for them. A few thousand jobs will almost certainly go to the continent out of at least half a million financial sector jobs in the UK, but it won't be an exodus or a great calamity for the UK financial industry.

They may have contingency plans, but hey don't have to act swiftly. Also, nobody believes the City becomes a completely abandoned place due to Brexit.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

They may have contingency plans, but hey don't have to act swiftly. Also, nobody believes the City becomes a completely abandoned place due to Brexit.

I agree that it was a ridiculous claim to begin with, but that's the Remainers' mindset for you.

Of course the same happened when the UK economy didn't tank right after the referendum as predicted. With the exception of a few honest people, everybody turned around and claimed that they never thought it would.

[Beren]

Of course the same happened when the UK economy didn't tank right after the referendum as predicted.

The pound sterling tanked though and hasn't recovered. Brexit hurts the British economy, although it hasn't even happened yet, even its prospects and the uncertainty it causes are hurting. However, the whole issue polarises society so much that both sides make extreme claims and statements, just like the same is going on in the US with Trump.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

For what it's worth the consensus used to be that sterling was overvalued, so whether a weaker pound is so detrimental to the UK economy is up for debate. It does lead to imported inflation but in my opinion if it leads to a reduction in imports it wouldn't be so bad for the UK.

[Beren]

Whether it's detrimental or not, the referendum results hit the pound hard immediately, so they affected the economy right at the moment they were coming out.

[Potemkin]

So sure, what is 75000 well paid jobs when you can have more austerity but be able to raise the middle finger at that toff in the suit.

Nope, still not seeing a downside to this, B0ycey.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Whether it's detrimental or not, the referendum results hit the pound hard immediately, so they affected the economy right at the moment they were coming out.

What a strange argument. The predictions were all about detrimental effects. Why would anybody care about an effect that is not negative (or positive)?

[Beren]

What a strange argument. The predictions were all about detrimental effects. Why would anybody care about an effect that is not negative (or positive)?

Well, there were immediate detrimental effects on the pound sterling at least, so in some sense the predictions were right, even though the UK economy didn't collapse that day.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

The effect on the pound cannot be detrimental if it's not detrimental to the UK economy. Is this one of those occasions where you just have to have the last word even if what you write doesn't make any sense?

[Beren]

The effect on the pound cannot be detrimental if it's not detrimental to the UK economy.

When the national currency is getting hit and losing its value rapidly, it's usually considered detrimental to the economy in general, even if it may have been considered overpriced.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

The main thing the sharp drop tells you is that the worst expectations for Brexit have been priced in and expectations can be right or wrong.

[Beren]

Do you mean the markets expect nothing good from Brexit but they can be wrong? Sure, they can.

Anyways, I let you have the last word, I have to go to sleep now. Have a nice day!

[Decky]

Does it matter if the bankers run away? They will be driven out at bayonet point when Corbyn get in anyway so it isn't as if they were ever going to be polluting our capital long term. Who will even notice? If all the plasterers or cleaners or bus drivers or bakers left there would be a crisis. Bankers? What is it that they even do? Doesn't it mostly involve shagging pretty young secretaries and snorting coke of whores tits? I can hardly see their absence costing the nation a penny let alone millions.

[B0ycey]

Does it matter if the bankers run away? They will be driven out at bayonet point when Corbyn get in anyway so it isn't as if they were ever going to be polluting our capital long term. Who will even notice? If all the plasterers or cleaners or bus drivers or bakers left there would be a crisis. Bankers? What is it that they even do? Doesn't it mostly involve shagging pretty young secretaries and snorting coke of whores tits? I can hardly see their absence costing the nation a penny let alone millions.

Perhaps the job the bankers do is create the pennies to begin with. Or the supply of them anyway.

[Decky]

Perhaps the job the bankers do is create the pennies to begin with. Or the supply of them anyway.

There is a man working in the mint who operates a machine to make pennies (and miners to mine the copper and drivers to transport it etc) all the people involved are working class. Bankers do not produce pennies, they produce nothing.