[Typhoon]

Suprising news to have recently circulated:

Is This China’s First Stealth Fighter?

They could be the products of a Chinese government misinformation campaign. They could be clever Photoshop jobs by Chinese aviation fanboys. Or, they could be the real thing: the first hard evidence of the long-rumored Chengdu J-20, China’s first stealth-fighter prototype.

The above photo and several others surfaced over the Christmas weekend on Chinese internet forums, catching the eye of Aviation Week fighter guru Bill Sweetman. A noted skeptic in the sometimes enthusiastic world of fast-jet journalism, Sweetman stressed that the pics might be fakes.

Fantastical Photoshop art is a hallmark of Chinese military-themed websites. See the giant, flying “heli-carrier” or the submarine flattop — both creations of over-excited Chinese Photoshoppers.

But there are hints that the J-20 photos are real — and that much clearer shots exist, somewhere. “Rumor has it that better shots have put in transient appearances on Chinese Websites before being zapped by the censor,” Sweetman wrote. That those rumored photos were yanked is itself perhaps proof that Beijing really does have a new fighter. “In China’s military fan Web culture, the rapid intervention of the censors is always a boost for the credibility of the poster,” aviation journalist Rick Fisher told Sweetman.

Most convincingly, the airplane depicted in the snapshots apparently has many of the right characteristics for a fifth-generation stealth-fighter prototype: a chiseled front-section, triangular wings, all-moving tailplanes. In fact, the supposed J-20 seems to combine the front fuselage of the U.S. Air Force’s F-22 with the back half of Russia’s T-50 stealth prototype, which appeared a little less than a year ago.

If it’s real — and that’s a big if — the J-20’s appearance could signal a big step forward for the Chinese air force, which to date relies mostly on airplanes bought from Russia or reverse-engineered from Russian or Israeli designs.

Panicky Western air-power advocates, who a year ago claimed America would be “less safe” if the Pentagon pressed forward with plans to end production of the F-22 stealth fighter at 187 copies, might just announce the end of America’s 50-year dominance of the skies. Alarmists made similar claims when Russia’s new T-50 fighter first flew, despite that plane’s many non-stealthy attributes and dubious production prospects.

The Pentagon hasn’t had a chance to comment on the J-20 photos, but is likely to remain sanguine. In deliberations over the F-22, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates acknowledged that the Chinese were working on a stealth fighter, but insisted the Communist country would have “no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020,” while the United States would have more than a thousand F-22s and F-35s.

In the year-and-a-half since Gates made that claim, the Pentagon has delayed F-35 production and China has apparently accelerated its own stealth development — alleged J-20 photos aside — but the spirit of Gates’ assertion remains valid.

Even if the photos are real and the J-20 exists as more than blueprints, there’s probably no cause for alarm. The United States flew its first stealth prototypes — the YF-22 and rival YF-23 — in 1990; the J-20 hasn’t even flown yet. It took 15 years for the F-22 to enter front-line service. Considering China’s quality-control problems with high technology, it could take a decade or more for the J-20 to appear in numbers that make any difference in the Pacific balance of power. Gates might have been slightly off in his assessment of the Chinese air force, but probably not by much.

And that’s all assuming Beijing’s Christmas stealth-fighter surprise isn’t all just Photoshop magic. With so little good information on military hardware coming out of China, fighter fakery is a real prospect. In which case, we’ll wait for China’s first stealth fighter to make its true debut.

Update, 7:28 EST: There’s another photo up — the clearest yet. “The impression here is of a big, long aircraft, 70+ feet from nose to tail, which would make sense for a number of reasons,” Sweetman wrote in reaction. He speculated the J-20 might have “lower supercruise performance and agility than an F-22, but with larger weapon bays and more fuel.”

“Why would China need or want a short-range stealth aircraft?” he continued. “Any targets with defenses that call for that capability are a long way from the mainland. Also, the bigger that the aircraft is, the more likely it is that it is a bomber as much as, if not more than, a fighter.”

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/12 ... h-fighter/

The below pretty much sums up my opinion on the matter:

There are a number of areas where the PLA has adopted approaches to operational requirements that differ significantly from U.S. approaches to the same requirement. Examples include the heavy reliance on ballistic and cruise missiles, rather than stealth aircraft, to attack ground targets inside heavily defended airspace; an array of systems to attack intelligence, communications, and navigation satellites, seeking to neutralize the U.S. advantage in space; an approach to computer network exploitation that harvests huge volumes of data; an emphasis on offensive and defensive electronic warfare in recent years; and the “three warfares” doctrine.

Congress Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010 (PDF)

I'm not saying the annual DoD report to Congress on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010 is a pile of paper crap, but I am ready to suggest the possibility the report might be something similar.

I've been reading Wired and Aviation Week, but until The DEW Line came around I decided to remain skeptical. Got these from Twitter and think they are worth a look.

Someone please tell me how we learn about this PLAAF development from cell phone photography technology and Chinese bulletin boards instead of from the annual DoD report?

In less than one week we have:

1. Confirmation new PLAN aircraft carrier is under construction
2. PACOM confirming DF-21D is now at IOC.
3. 4/5 Generation Stealth technology demonstrators on the runway

All of which is either well ahead of projected schedules or was never before thought to exist, at least publicly? Perhaps it is time the Secretary of Defense answers a few tough questions, like why the DoD appears to be caught with their pants around their ankles when it comes to major PLA developments.

http://www.informationdissemination.net/

[U184]

You got beat to the punch.
Chinese New Fighter - CHENGDU J-20
http://www.politicsforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=114&t=126736

[Typhoon]

You got beat to the punch.

Curses!

Perhaps I can redeem myself with a composite of some of the highest resolution images to be passing through the internet forums and some analysis :
http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/4894/jxx2.jpg

Firstly while it adopts many of the features noted on previous stealth aircraft like the chined nose (ala F-22) and movable verticle tails (ala PAK-FA) it appears to be a unique effort. Perhaps the first true design in which China has not based directly on the experiance of others such with the case of the J-10 and J-11 etc.

Interestingly the aircraft seems to be the first 5th generation aircraft to have gone down the canard route, perhaps to compensate for a apparent lack of thrust vectoring in the design as the engines are spaced very closely together. The aircraft uses diverterless supersonic inlets perhaps benifiting from the JF-17 program and will likely use a Russian engine at least initially.

In terms of signature the aircraft as said above incorporates a lot of stealth features into its blended design and seems to have gone down the PAK-FA/JSF rear compromised stealth path rather than the stealth at all costs F-22 design. One aspect to note however is the ventral fins, no other 5th gen features these and they will not benifit the signature (they along with the canards were removed from the Su-35 to greatly reduce the signature of the aircraft).

Considering other developments in Chinas avliation industry the aircraft will likely feature a modern glass cockpit but other than noting that the aircraft has a very large nose there is nothing that can really be said about the avionics of the aircraft, though no provision for IRST is seen.

Interesting stuff, see what comes over the next few months.

[U184]

Sounds good, I think I would like to see some flight maneuvers before I really weigh in.

Might as well put in a request to have this melded with the first one since that will happen anyway

[Rilzik]

I think we all knew this was coming one of these days. It means two things to me. One: how fast can they get it operational. Second, will this finally light a fire under a certain congresses you know what.

[Igor Antunov]

It looks extremely large. Long range?

[MB.]

Typhoon, if stealth at all costs were the advanced fighter's primary function the USAF would have bought F-23s. ;)

[Typhoon]

It looks extremely large. Long range?

It certainly appears to be largest 5th generation aircraft produced to date, though many of the aircrafts features seem excessively large like the flap actuations if you compare them with other aircraft, could be down to inexperiance on the part of China but it will impact signature. Range will depend on how much is fuel tank and what type of engine they eventually go for, it may end up underpowered if China is unable to secure a sufficiently powerful jet for the aircraft.

Typhoon, if stealth at all costs were the advanced fighter's primary function the USAF would have bought F-23s.

Point, but it is a way of differentiating between two apparently different design philisophys. The F-22 all aspect stealth first option in comparison to the eastern selectively compromised option.

[Cookie Monster]

It certainly appears to be largest 5th generation aircraft produced to date, though many of the aircrafts features seem excessively large like the flap actuations if you compare them with other aircraft, could be down to inexperiance on the part of China but it will impact signature. Range will depend on how much is fuel tank and what type of engine they eventually go for, it may end up underpowered if China is unable to secure a sufficiently powerful jet for the aircraft.

The biggest question is indeed which engines it will be using. The ones the Chinese developed for the J-10 would be underpowered.

And the J-20 seems about the size of the Su-50 or perhaps even a bit smaller. According to estimates made by others:




And btw there is also a report of the Chinese developing a stealth bomber:

According to the “Fenghuang Tower” the H-8 is reported to start trial flights from January 5th. The Chinese leadership including the Central Military Committee officers, air force logistics department officer, national defense science and industry committee, Xi’an deputy mayor, the provincial party committee assistant deputy secretary, amongst others were present for inaugurating the project.

The H-8 is a secret strategic bomber, is the first stealth plane for China. The report said that, in 1994 officially set up a development to match the American B-2A as far as possible. The weapons load is targeted around 18 tons. When necessity, the bomber may travel at 1.2 Mach to penetrate defended territory or in case it needs to escape. pThe bomber will carry a new stealth cruise missile. It also has the range to reach targets on the continental United States. Range is estimated to be up to ten thousand kilometers. It is unclear whether this is with refueling or without refueling. However, the bomber is said to be able to refuel. The aircraft uses domestically produced advanced navigation equipment. The bomber has been designed by the 603 institute, and Christian will be responsible for producing the bomber. The bomber will be the first domestically designed and manufactured strategic bomber.

According to the report, the H-8 uses a high-tech blended wing-body design, has fly-by-wire controls, and an angled fuselage. The wing has massive internal fuel tanks. The aircraft using carbon fiber and other composite materials. The weapons bay has a rotating weapons profile.

The bomber retains a terrain hugging capacity and has a terrain following and mapping radar, satellite data links and advanced digital mapping systems. The bomber also uses advanced stealth technologies including nanometer coating amongst other technologies.

The H-8 will have 4 turbo-fan engines, the core of which is based on the WS-10A. Weapons will include 12 “red birds” (??) or 3 cruise missiles distribute in two weapons bays. Each of the cruise missiles may use a nuclear warhead and can fire from a distance of 3,000 kilometers. It can also use a host of other weapons including laser guided “thunder stone” 6, satellite guidance bomb and anti-ship missile, amongst others.

The H-8 bomber was a Chinese military aircraft that was a possible successor to the Christian H-6 twin-engine jet bomber. The prototype aircraft was reported to be an enlarged version of the H-6 with underwing engines, but that the project was canceled in the early 1970s before the bomber went into production. the China military has a stealth bomber called Christian H-8. The bomber has 4 Ws-10A engines derived from Russian and US technology. It is made from carbon fiber and coated with special nanotechnology. well, the Christian H-8 has a max speed of Mach 1.2 and carries stealth missiles in its cargo bay. The bomber also can carry nuclear missiles. China is currently developing stealth fighters like J-XX and J-13 (which is based on the J-10). pIt is the world’s second Stealth bomber, and is more advanced than the American B-2. Because the project is top-secret, little is known about the aircraft. It is a Stealth, strategic, and heavy bomber rolled into one. It carries a crew of two. It could fly as fast as Mach 1.4, has a range of 11,000 kilometers (without refuelling), and can carry over 18 tonnes of bomb load. It can carry twelve Stealth cruise missiles (each with a range of 3,000 km) on each of the two weapons bays. It could carry an additional three nuclear missiles (350-kilotons each). The bomber will be mass-produced and will enter active service in the PLAAF by 2010. The bomber will replace the old H-6 bombers that the PLAAF have in active service.

For obvious reasons the actual bomber may look slightly different because the pictures may have been camouflaged to hide the details of true design of the Chinese plane. This is standard operating procedure for new secret weapons. A similar obfuscating tactic was adopted by the American DoD before the Stealth B-2 bomber was introduced to the public. Prototype models of the B-2 had all sorts of designs.

http://www.defenceaviation.com/2007/11/ ... omber.html

[Igor Antunov]

Well they need to complete their nuclear triad, good ballistic missiles are being pumped out, land based mirved missiles are being pumped out, and now a strategic bobmer to complete the delivery triad.

And looking at those compariosn pics, it is obvious that all stealth aircraft are rather unique.

[U184]

Think it was built with super long range in mind?

[Igor Antunov]

Possibly. Larger aircraft can carry larger fuel tanks.

This is a nice pic:



Maybe china will start selling a toned down version of this, would be interesting to have a 5th gen stealth fighter on the open market.

Sort of messes with other countries plans in the region. Australia has committed to F35's, yet if china starts exporting this thing it will outclass the F35 screwing over our comparative capabilities, since the US won't sell/share the F-22 with anyone.

[Typhoon]

The ones the Chinese developed for the J-10 would be underpowered.

Not to mention highly unreliable, the most likely candidate currently is the AL-31F but China is known to be trying to secure access to a supply of AL-41F-1S engines (which may explain recent walming in Russia China arms relationship), its not a true 5th generation engine but it will be a close second.

Sort of messes with other countries plans in the region

As with the PAK-FA before the J-20 is a clear indicator of the need to sort out the F-35 program, the F-22 is an old design now so I dont think going back to that is nessasarily the response that will give western aircraft the edge again...we need somthing new though the F-35 is probably not it...

[Cookie Monster]

Not to mention highly unreliable, the most likely candidate currently is the AL-31F but China is known to be trying to secure access to a supply of AL-41F-1S engines (which may explain recent walming in Russia China arms relationship), its not a true 5th generation engine but it will be a close second.

Some Russian posters in a non-existent military forum claim that Saturn has already too many orders to meet a potential Chinese request for AL-41F-1S engines. I have no idea to what extend this is true though.

[Typhoon]

I have no idea to what extend this is true though.

Could very well be the Russian MIC is running at pretty much peak capacity, such is demand that Almaz-Antey for example is setting in motion the construction of two new factories for S-400 production, would not be suprised to find the engine industry in a similar situation. China may be stuck with a legacy engine for all the wrong reasons...

[Igor Antunov]

The engines go to the highest bidder of course, and there is nobody currently around that can outbid the chinese. Mind you the russians are probably milking the situation for all it's worth, extorting money for peanuts, hence the difficulties.

China really needs to get it's espionage arm into gear and steal that shit then outproduce the russians at their own game. They no doubt have the blueprints, but they may not have the fabrication techniques, that's easier to obtain I would think, it's only a matter of time.

[Cookie Monster]

Building advanced and reliable jetengines requires decades of investments and research and development. You cannot simply copycat the knowledge to produce high quality end-products.

[Igor Antunov]

Building advanced and reliable jetengines requires decades of investments and research and development. You cannot simply copycat the knowledge to produce high quality end-products.

Copycat the knowledge? No, you take all their research, their development, their technbiques, their technologies, their blueprints thus far, and you're 95% there. A minor problem lies in filling in the gaps because inevitably some pieces will be missing, but that merely takes time.

The bigger problem lies in the way such engines components are actually manufactured. The techniques.

It's not the exotic materials, it's the fabrication process itself of the smaller high precision parts. You need a massive industry geared for their particular and varied production. Thousands of parts from hundreds of various manufacturers, in russias case most of them nationally owned thus difficult to buy/steal the process from. It takes time.

Where my dad supervises, his company produces high grade parts for many european and north american military aircraft manufacturers. Tiny bits and pieces for jet engines produced with such precision that the entire company specializes in this particular process.

China would need to build up a reservoir of hundreds of these specialized manufacturers to set up an assembly line. It doesn't have them domestically yet, it can't outsource to Australian companies, it can't outsource to anybody in the west thanks to the european and north american embargo on weapons trades, so it only has russia. And russia is playing it's usual extortionist game while it can, probably slipping them faulty components in legitimate sales. The russians are famous for the monkey-model. What they sell abroad is generations inferior to what they keep for themselves. Maybe after the soviet collapse they got a little too generous in light of their crappy economic situation, selling legitimate technologies to the chinese and others, now they are trying to safeguard what they have by playing hard to get.

Having said all that they do have their own indigenous engines in development, this one is of particular interest: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenyang_WS-15

[Typhoon]

China really needs to get it's espionage arm into gear and steal that shit then outproduce the russians at their own game.

They already tried this but it was a bit of a faliure for them, the supply of high quality weapons dried up and China was still without the ability to manufacture its own. The recent signing of articles between Russia and China on the protection of intellectual property was a departure from this policy for China and a step in the right direction.

I feel that India has had a far more successful relationship with Russia technology than China.

[Cookie Monster]

I feel that India has had a far more successful relationship with Russia technology than China.

Hmm it's interesting how this offsets against China's more successful domestic production projects than India.