[Igor Antunov]

TAIPEI -- China's arms buildup over the last two decades would give it the power to invade Taiwan by 2020 even if allies came to the island's aid, a military report said Tuesday.

The mainland's annual military spending has grown on average by double-digit rates over the past 20 years or so, according to Taiwan's 2013 National Defense Report.

Aside from military might, it said, China's capacity for weapons research and manufacturing had greatly increased, "which has boosted its military deterrent and posed a grave threat to Taiwan".

Among the new weapons China had acquired, both locally produced and purchased from Russia, were nuclear-powered and conventional submarines, strategic bombers, stealth fighters, early warning aircraft and ballistic and air defense missiles, it said.

"With the continued arms buildup, the Chinese communists will be able to take Taiwan by force before the end of 2020," it said.

The report also cited China's growing military capability to deter foreign intervention, in contrast to the US Pacific pivot policy, which it said had been "stifled" due to budget constraints.

The United States is Taiwan's main ally. In 1996 it sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to waters near the island after China lobbed missiles into the sea to try to deter Taiwanese from voting for President Lee Teng-hui.

The report said China's military, known as the People's Liberation Army, has a total strength of 2.27 million of which the army accounts for 1.25 million. About one-third of its army is deployed directly opposite Taiwan.

Military analysts say China has targeted the island with at least 1,600 ballistic missiles.

Despite the potential military threat, Taiwan is cutting its own defense spending, with the number of troops due to be reduced to 215,000 next year from the present 240,000.

Ties between Taipei and Beijing have eased markedly since Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Kuomintang was elected in March 2008 on a platform of ramping up trade and tourism links. He was re-elected in January 2012 for a second and last four-year term.

But Beijing still refuses to renounce its use of force should the island declare independence, even though Taiwan has ruled itself for more than 60 years.

The two sides split at the end of a civil war in 1949.

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/7232 ... de-in-2020

It is probably more a matter of waiting for America's political capital to wane than building a strong military. China could do it now but the benefits are not obvious as long as political links between the Island Province and the Mainland continue to grow unabated.

[U184]

Even if America's political capital begins to wane, it will not stop our progress, as most of our next two sets of next generation productions are already paid for, we have a vast oil reserve. Even if we stopped dead economically and China increased 100 fold, it would still be at least 30 years before China would even come close to being able to project at the level America does, even in their own local area and they will need another 60 years before they can start to project past their own region.

[layman]

It doesnt need to be able to project power like America.

It just needs to be able to take control an island that is very close.

[U184]

How do you suppose it would accomplish that, if it can not meet America head on? America and other countries in treaty with the US ensure the safety of said island and China is ill equipped to deal with just the USA.

China acts when and as it can, if they had the ability they would have moved on it and much, much more. In the end, they may never be able to move at all, as their current pushes are stirring up other Asian nations.

[oscar]

Or... it does not make business sense to "move" on Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe they can just "buy up" the Taiwan economy bit by bit. Wars between potential trading partners are usually bad for business (unless you are part of the military industrial complex).

[Goldberk]

As has been mentioned it makes no sense to act militarily while Taiwan moves economical and politically towards China.

[park]

The US is becoming more socialist,then less rich.Addictive debt increase,higher taxation and Obamacare will slowly make America lose the resources to project military.China is full capitalism,similar to old style America.China will probably replace the US as Taiwan's defender

[U184]

Healthcare will be the downfall of the USA?

[layman]

Never said they could do it now. It is almost inevitable that china will be eventually too strong to stop by conventional means, given the geographical situation. Maybe not by 2020 but by 2050 or whatever. Is America really going to risk nuclear war to stop this reunification?

I have some sympathy with china on this.

These are Chinese people. The lines is artificial just like Korea, east/west Germany etc.

[park]

Healthcare will be the downfall of the USA?

It's the most expensive service that states provide.It's the opposite of old American way of liberalism.

[Typhoon]

There is no shortage of evidence of a massive disparity in capability (not just numerically) between the RoC and the PRC.

Taiwan is underfunded and even if more funds were there it would be difficult to imagine the US being able to supply the products Taiwan would need to defend itself in an adequate manner.

The impression is that Taiwanese forces are just to stall any invading force until external forces arrive, this is a very dangerous strategy though as you do wonder how good a guarantor of Taiwanese independence the US would be in the face of a determined Chinese invasion.

[skeptic-1]

As has been mentioned it makes no sense to act militarily while Taiwan moves economical and politically towards China.

I hink you are absolutely right !

[Decky]

It is probably more a matter of waiting for America's political capital to wane than building a strong military.

Thus. China will not have to liberate Taiwan from the US empire militarily. Soon enough the US will not be able to afford to have a credible defence there and it will just roll over to the PRC's request.

Same as Hong Kong and the British.

[Rei Murasame]

Yes, it makes total sense. Chinese who have no respect whatsoever for the actual existence of Taiwan, want 'liberate' Taiwan from itself.

Hopefully this report goes out like a warning and encourages Taiwan to address this problem before Chinese carpetbaggers end up dismantling Taiwan permanently. It's down to those who know and remember the truth of what is happening there, to react appropriately to this threat. It is not merely an ethnic issue or a tension between two locations with different identities and histories. It is a class issue. Taiwan is like a 'proletarian nation'* which needs to push back against the exploiters, be they American or Chinese.

Throw the CCP into the Yellow Sea if they show up, and throw the KMT into that same sea after them. They can go home!

They need to elect the pan-Green coalition of parties. Let there be an independent Republic of Taiwan.

In the near-term, they need to increase defence spending as soon as possible. They need to prepare themselves even in these very days and hours.

* 'Proletarian nations' are nations whose whole population is in a position where it is as though they are existing at the whim of another.

[Powerup]

There will never be a Republic of Taiwan and the civil war will end with unification.

[Rei Murasame]

We'll see about that. Taiwan will exist, whether the Chinese like it or not.

[Hoss Cartwright]

China forcibly conquering Taiwan is as likely as India retaking Bangladesh. it is not going to happen what may happen is it increase customs union between China and the breakaway state

[Lexington]

Let us imagine if we are in Beijing and think about the pros and cons of invading Taiwan.

Pro:
We get Taiwan.

Cons:
Everyone else nearby starts making friends with the US/India/EU or anyone else who can help because hey, they might be bullied/invaded next.

It's not worth it in the first place and definitely not worth it for China for the consequences.

[Rei Murasame]

I agree with the sentiments expressed above, but just as a note, Bangladesh actually seceded from Pakistan (with much bloodshed), and India helped Bangladesh to do so.

[Hoss Cartwright]

Bangladesh was a part of the colonial Indian administration from what i've heard. the partition issue that would inevitably lead to the Bangladeshi War of Independence was kind of complicated.