[KurtFF8]

Venezuela Becomes Stable and Governable Thanks to a Solid Social Base

Pretty good article that sums up some of the balance of forces in Venezuela presently, as well as some of the challenges for the PSUV.

By Aram Aharonian - Rebelion, July 4th 2013

Why, if the supposed crisis was the productive Venezuelan model, did the crisis break out in Brazil? Something that has been shown is that the Bolivarian model adopted over the last decade has gone beyond the economic and political realms, achieving a solid social base, popular organisation – beyond electoral results. Maybe because of that it has managed to successfully get out of, for now, the difficult situation.

Beyond the real serious problems, the induced crisis, publicised on a large scale by the Venezuelan private media, and above all, by the foreign media, there are currently various signs that indicate that the government of Nicolas Maduro is leaning towards stabilising and consolidating itself. This, after an initial moment of turbulence that has lead to many, and not just members of the opposition, to proposing old and many times failed neoliberal formulas and also to demanding that it’s time to administrate and correct, forgetting altogether the socialist path.

However, Bolivarian economists insist that this first Chavista government, presided over by Maduro, must have a political economy that radically differentiates itself from the monetarist, neoliberal, pro-capitalist focus- practices which point to “recovering the equilibrium, good practices, and competition” at the cost of reducing spending on wages, reductions in productive activities, loss of economic sovereignty, unemployment, and deterioration of social indicators.

Some people (the most dogmatic ones?) talk about “rightwing-isation” and the presence in Caracas of some “advisers” linked to European social democracy is missed. Those advisors who don’t recognise [Venezuelan] idiosyncrasies and vernacular culture, are determined to promote models that have already been frustratingly tried and to stop a “radicalisation” of the model.

No one doubts that there are multiple and diverse points of tension here in Venezuela, and that they range from wage demands (above all from the middle class sectors) and social demands, to geopolitical disagreements with Colombia and the United States. Obviously, the conflicts won’t disappear with the Maduro government, and even less so with a rightwing administration which throws away all the advances achieved in the last decade.

The economist Simon Zuniga indicates that the difficult economic situation and the vacillation within the highest (and new) government have prevented a series of gradual but urgent measures from coming into effect until now, in order to confront the principle short term economic and financial problems, among them the inflationary rise and the alarming deceleration of the GDP.

Add to this the fact that both negative symptoms have something in common; the exchange rate attack. Real economic sectors, national and international, have had successes in the implementing of an agenda that aims to broaden the gap between the official exchange rate (6.3 Bolivars to the dollar) and the parallel rate (over 30), applying media based pressure in order to oblige the government to devaluate, as it effectively did in February. “It’s essential to immediately disarm this destabilisation strategy which threatens to consolidate a picture of stagflation (blockage by inflation)”, he indicates.

The concerning thing is that important sectors of the opposition don’t seem to be willing to accept a calmness for very long, which they consider exasperating. These factors in struggle for the reconquering of power, continue, unfortunately, to seek support for a coup. And in the meantime, they continue to play at destabilisation. Further, there are paramilitary groups beyond the border areas (there were arrests in Portuguesa state and their presence was even denounced in the areas around Caracas).

“The Venezuelan opposition is complex and it’s not just made up of this or that party, but rather there are important radicalised factors with a lot of influence and decision making power as well. Everything indicates that these groups have taken our neighbour, Colombia, as a logistical platform for acting on Venezuela, given the belligerence of ex-President Alvaro Uribe and the geopolitical differences between the two countries, which would facilitate such actions,” said the opposition political scientist Leopoldo Puchi.

There were various meetings held to plan the Venezuelan destabilisation, between Uribe and the opposition, headed by Henrique Capriles Radonski, who continues to accumulate famous sayings, such as this one: “To have a homeland is to have money to go to the supermarket”.

What’s more, a conversation (made public by the government) between the ultra-rightwing legislator Maria Corina Machado and the representative of the 2D movement, German Carrera Damas, made it clear that the rightwing is seeking help from the US government and its agencies in order to carry out a coup d’état. According to the conversation, Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, spokesperson of the opposition United Democratic Table (MUD), asked officials of the State Department to speed up, via all possible means, including the Putsch option [translator: a reference to a manoeuvre by the Nazis in Munich in 1923] the fall of the Bolivarian Revolution and to end with the Chavismo control.

Maduro and governability

Maduro has managed to negotiate through a series of difficulties, which means an important increase in the levels of governability. The president, who has tried to lead a campaign against insecurity [crime] and corruption, has managed to respond to the charging opposition. He has tried to respond to the pressures from social and union sectors, and he has prevented, above all, the street from overheating. He is constantly present all over the country, with his “street government”, and he has also managed to dialogue with opposition sectors (the business ones among them).

However, from the Chavista ranks, there are accusations of the rejection of the criticisms coming from leftwing sectors and, above all, the absence of discussion around the last instructions given by President Hugo Chavez at the last ministers’ meeting on 20 October 2012 (“Golpe de Timon”) and the drawing attention to the inefficiency, ineffectiveness, the absence of following through on measures taken, and corruption.

Additionally, the lack of investigation into white collar corruption ($20 billion at large, $15 billion more through Sitme for example), the way the re-establishment of relations with the US is negotiated, the getting close to European governments (obviously rightwing), the “excessive” praise of the pope, are criticised.

In December Venezuela will live through another electoral process. This time mayors and councillors will be chosen and the concern of the bases is the lack of popular participation in the selection of candidates for the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP), and also the route that will be followed to continue consolidating the communal state.

Translation by Tamara Pearson for Venezuelanalysis.com

[Social_Critic]

The article is more baloney. The Chavez regime left behind a mess. I've already listed the crime, corruption, high inflation, high debt and other issues. The black market dollar is at 30 because they closed down the secondary market, SITME. They are making many mistakes and even the Cubans who run the show (Maduro being a Cuban puppet) are screwing things up because even they are trying to move away from communism and the associated bullshit.

Maduro spends most of the time traveling abroad. His presidential plane is provided by Cubana the Cuban airline. His street meetings are no longer carried out and amounted to nothing.

Why is there so much unrest? Because inflation exceeds 30 %, there's food shortages and everybody is upset because they either can't find food or they can't afford it.

Why aren't there more demonstrations? There are lots of them. But massive demonstrations require permits and those are denied..,and the government already showed it won't budge or listen to demonstrations, plus it has a record of arresting leaders. In a country where there's no justice system and jails are hell, most Venezuelans would rather stay home.

So what's going to happen as Venezuela gets taken over by Cuba's fascist dictatorship? Good question. It depends on the Cuban people. The defeat of the emerging Cubazuela fascist entity is paramount for freedom. Things are plenty bad as it is with the emergence of these fascists disguised as zombie democracies. All of us need to be aware that, in this century, the little freedom we have achieved is threatened by these elites, which in Cubazuela's case is controlled by oligarchs and the so called Cuban communist party, a truly fascist entity engaged in the preservation of power and privilege for those at the top.

[ronimacarroni]

I think the mistake that socialist often make, is assuming that economics and socialism are not compatible.

Price controls for example were doomed from the start. You can't force someone to do something at a loss.

If they had redistributed lands to people with technical agricultural management degrees with the condition that they'd follow a non corporate model it would have been a different story.

Still if they want to follow the nordic model good for them. Even Social_Critics admits they're moving away from the Castro regime.

[AndresSerrano]

Big running gun battle night before last about three blocks from my humble abode, two bad guys killed, ten got away. They attacked three jewelry stores at once. The week prior one of our assisstan managers of the female persuasion had someone tap on her car window with a gun and politely asked her for all her belongings, of course her niece was killed by a stray bullet not a year ago and her boyfriend (who drives a Taxi) was abducted and the humble family had to fork out 3K USD for his liberty. Just a few months in a family's life here in this paradise. Of course the latest is that there was an attempt on Maduro's life......"Magnicide" is what they call this blatant and obvious lie, but hey who's counting. Better count the amount of pasta in stock because suddenly, WHEAT is in short supply. Silly me, I forgot one of my prescriptions.....got laughed out of three pharmacies today. Oh and yes the PSUV is doing it so well that inflation so far this year is a modest 30 PERCENT.
peacy this place, truly......what robberlutionaries?? One joy, got to eat ACTUAL Venezuelan cheese today. first time in 18 MONTHS I don't eat URUGUAYAN cheese here. progress.....

[Social_Critic]

Andres I keep telling you the situation is hopeless and you do need to get out soon. My guess is the push by the Cubans to get Maduro the ability to rule by decree will mean the end of organized opposition. Once he gets the ability to rule by decree he will use it to pass draconian laws against "corruption". These will be used to jail and possibly execute opposition figures.

Evidently the economy is a big mess, but I sense the newly emerging fascist model will convince big business to accommodate themselves with the Cubans (just like they do in Cuba now where the fascist model is a harsh emerging reality). I had a brief encounter with a chavista in Spain two weeks ago, he was visiting with his wife. The guy was a nini but his wife is an enchufada, has relatives in high places in Maduro's government. Those two were traveling with a high budget, she was spending time shopping in fancy stores, and I also found out they were getting their pictures taken in front of the local communist party hut to send to their boligarch friends. I know this is just a single case, but I thought it was impressive to see how the guy changed.

[Sithsaber]

Colombia is just as shitty, and seems to have not taking your "gradual reforms to be rescinded at a later date" idea seriously.