[Puffer Fish]

There is a migration pattern in the U.S. -- People are leaving West Coast cities in California and moving to the South, especially to Texas and Florida.

California tends to be a much more progressive Left-leaning state, politically, whereas the South is more conservative and is more Right-leaning.
Does this large movement of people away from West Coast cities in California show something about the Left's policies?

(For those who may not be aware, the state of California contains about half the total population that lives in the Western United States, more people than the 21 least populated states combined together)


Single HENRYs are fleeing West Coast cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles for the Sunbelt

("HENRY" stands for "High Earners, Not Rich Yet".)

A disproportionate share of these movers are high-income and unmarried, the report found. Among nearly all of the 26 metro areas analyzed, at least 90% of moves in were single-person households. Among those moving from the West to the South, over 40% had income above $125,000.

Between April 2020 and July 2023, the South's population increased by 3.9 million people, Census Bureau data shows. Cities in Florida and Georgia, and Texas cities like Austin and San Antonio, among many others, have seen big spikes in population. This has been primarily driven by domestic migration, with a smaller boost from international migration.

The West is seeing its share of the US population decline for the first time since the 1940s. The West has seen a decline in domestic migration but increases in international migration.

Housing costs are a major reason people are leaving West Coast cities for the Sunbelt. The median price of a home in San Francisco is $1.2 million, while the median price in Phoenix is $445,000 and $416,000 in Tampa.
​
Single HENRYs are fleeing West Coast cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles for the Sunbelt, study finds , Eliza Relman, Noah Sheidlower, Feb 6, 2024

[ThirdTerm]

Code: Select allHousing costs are a major reason people are leaving West Coast cities for the Sunbelt. The median price of a home in San Francisco is $1.2 million, while the median price in Phoenix is $445,000 and $416,000 in Tampa.


There is no doubt that housing costs are too expensive in California. I once stayed in the Northridge area. This average-looking house is well over $1 million.



Northridge Los Angeles Single Family Homes For Sale - $1.4 million

[KurtFF8]

I don't understand where this myth that places like California or New York are "leftist places." They're both run by liberals who openly support the capitalist system and are hostile to socialism.

As for the conservative argument that people are fleeing those states "liberal policies" rather than just people migrating for economic reasons: it's just doesn't seem all that reality based of a claim.

[Puffer Fish]

I don't understand where this myth that places like California or New York are "leftist places." They're both run by liberals who openly support the capitalist system and are hostile to socialism.

They are very "progressive Left" compared to most any other states in the United States. These two states seem to have a penchant for creating various different systems that are socialized. For example, in California both public university tuition and utility rates have been set up according to a progressive income scheme, where households with higher income pay higher rates.
California has an added corporate tax of 8.84 percent.

Now, are they as Left as many of the members in this forum are, or like the Soviet Union? Of course not.

[late]

California has the problems that come with success.

They also have the problems that come with being American. Which is to say they are often reactionary, and that this is more economic than political. Where it is political, they are reactionary, for example concerned with their property and not the community.

[Puffer Fish]

California has the problems that come with success.

But in the 1950s to 1990s, California had the success with much fewer of the problems.

The problem was the success attracted too many people, especially illegal migration, which the progressive "liberals" in the state welcomed, because they knew it would ultimately give them votes and cement their political power in the state.


Between 1988 to 2018 -- a span of only 30 years -- the state population increased by 38.6%.
California had already grown to become a high-population state before 1988.

(California had surpassed New York as the most populous state in the U.S. in 1963. )

[Puffer Fish]

You can also see this thread:
Younger generation moving to rural regions because they cannot afford housing (16 Nov 2023 )

[Tainari88]

I don't understand where this myth that places like California or New York are "leftist places." They're both run by liberals who openly support the capitalist system and are hostile to socialism.

As for the conservative argument that people are fleeing those states "liberal policies" rather than just people migrating for economic reasons: it's just doesn't seem all that reality based of a claim.

People are moving from California's expensive rents from their most expensive cities. Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, La Jolla, Santa Barbara, Santa Mónica and etc are expensive cities to live in. Now if you live in Bakersfield, or Stockton, or some cheap inner ugly California city far from the coast? You might get decent rent prices. But all of Coastal Southern California and anything near Silicon Valley and the Bay Area is very expensive to rent from. Oakland used to be affordable. Not anymore.

Average rent prices for big, urban cities in California:

Furnished high rises? A studio or one bedroom? In L.A.? About $2950 dollars a month. Which means you have to produce after tax income a month of approximately $8850 dollars a month. If you go by only spending one third of your income after tax in rent. If you spend a bit more of that you will still be ok with $7375 a month in income after taxes. It breaks down to making $285 dollars a day in pay or $237 in pay a day. Which means making $35 and up an hour in pay. If you make less than that after taxes? You will not make it in Los Angeles. Period. And those are good deals.

https://www.1010downtown.com/?utm_sourc ... 861f329c86


This is a good deal in Los Angeles. They give you about six weeks or one month or so free rent if you sign a one-year lease. Your credit rating has to be stellar. The lowest they will accept is in the high 600s but the preferred credit rating is in the high 700s and above 800. No evictions. No drug or criminal history behind you. And usually a minimum of six months to one year at the same employment. The deposits vary. Usually, electricity is not included and if you bring a pet usually there is a little bit more to pay in rent. Mainly for cleaning the place if you bring a small dog or cat.

You are looking at about A little bit over $6000 just to move into a place in most cases.

If you are a married couple it is easier if both work. Then it breaks down to each person paying half the rent.

Your annual salary for that type of apartment is going to have to be $106200. After taxes. Which means if you are a single person and you pay about 35% of income taxes to the state of California you will need to be making close to $140,000 dollars before taxes to make it in California just to rent a one bedroom or studio apartment in the urbanized area of the city. Denver is kind of similar. So are most big, US cities.

It is expensive. If you make some $25 dollar an hour salary with a college degree and debt from student loans? And some car loan because without a car in Los Angeles you are DEAD in the water unless your job is strictly remote work. That is it. You can't make it.

The minimum wage in California is:

The minimum wage in California, effective January 1, 2024, is $16.00/hour for all employers. Fast Food Restaurant employers, effective April 1, 2024, and Healthcare Facility employers, effective June 1, 2024, will have a higher minimum wage.

Some cities and counties have higher minimum wages than the state’s rate. Here is a list of City and County minimum wages in California maintained by UC Berkeley.

Most employees in California must be paid at least the minimum wage per hour, with some exceptions explained in the FAQs below.

That means even two adults working full time before taxes are taken out doing minimum wages will not make that budget threshold in order to afford that furnished apartment. That is reality.

[Puffer Fish]

That means even two adults working full time before taxes are taken out doing minimum wages will not make that budget threshold in order to afford that furnished apartment. That is reality.

Indeed, correct.

And in a lot of parts of California, that will mean those two full-time working adults will be sharing a one-bedroom apartment.
Either that or they will have to forgo the luxury of having a car.

And for those who may not be aware, in nearly all parts of the state, it is very difficult to be able to get around without having a car.
The situation is such that more than half of people on the verge of homelessness would sooner give up having a home to sleep than not have a car.

(There are several reasons why that is, but would probably be a discussion for a separate thread)


I will also point out that it's not easy to just get any minimum wage job.
There is a huge amount of competition for the minimum wage jobs that are less unpleasant.

[Robert Urbanek]

Any satisfaction people will feel moving to a more “affordable” state will be short lived as climate chaos, and the attendant soaring temperatures, flooding, damage to infrastructure and escalating home insurance rates, will make life miserable for millions in both red and blue states.

[Tainari88]

Indeed, correct.

And in a lot of parts of California, that will mean those two full-time working adults will be sharing a one-bedroom apartment.
Either that or they will have to forgo the luxury of having a car.

And for those who may not be aware, in nearly all parts of the state, it is very difficult to be able to get around without having a car.
The situation is such that more than half of people on the verge of homelessness would sooner give up having a home to sleep than not have a car.

(There are several reasons why that is, but would probably be a discussion for a separate thread)


I will also point out that it's not easy to just get any minimum wage job.
There is a huge amount of competition for the minimum wage jobs that are less unpleasant.

California pays shitty wages for highly qualified office jobs like receptionist, secretary or office manager, etc. Most want Bachelor's Degrees completed. BA, and most want bilingualism in Los Angeles. Mostly Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Arabic, Armenian, etc. Both. They want degrees, multilingualism, and updated computer skills, good on phones, and juggling a lot. For crap of $22 dollars an hour or $17 dollars. They do not get enough candidates. Because if you are college educated and so on and have the required techy skills you can start up your own business or do your own thing and get better wages or profit. No need to work for those cheapskates. So what do these assholes do? They hire Mexican college graduates that can answer the phones, translate, fill out legal documents, be office managers via remote and pay them $80 pesos an hour. Which is about $4.50 US an hour.

They subcontract them. California is notorious for hiring Latin Americans for way below minimum California wages to avoid paying benefits and so on. They tell you to tell customers you live in Los Angeles when in reality you are living in Mexico or Central America.

That is what they do. To avoid paying decent wages. Minimum wages for farm workers in California like dairy workers is:

What is minimum wage in California 2023 farmers?
Due to the enactment of Senate Bill (SB) 3, the California minimum wage increased to $15.50 per hour, effective January 1, 2023, for all employers.

[Tainari88]

Any satisfaction people will feel moving to a more “affordable” state will be short lived as climate chaos, and the attendant soaring temperatures, flooding, damage to infrastructure and escalating home insurance rates, will make life miserable for millions in both red and blue states.

That is true. But cheapo rent states like Alabama, Oklahoma, etc are worth moving to if your income is about $7500 US dollars a month. You get more bang for your buck.

For example if you have a remote job that pays about $4500 US dollars a month you can't get that apartment that is a one bedroom furnished in the USA. But if you move to my city of Mérida, Yucatán in México? You get these huge furnished house with four bedrooms or five bedrooms and three bathrooms and a pool, completely furnished for the rent price of $1411 US dollars a month. Plus many throw in water, trash and some cleaning person once a week for free. So? It is a steal.

Here is the house I am talking about...and it is considered pricey in this market. In Los Angeles it does not exist. Nothing close to that low in price.

https://www.inmuebles24.com/propiedades ... 49844.html

[wat0n]

That is true. But cheapo rent states like Alabama, Oklahoma, etc are worth moving to if your income is about $7500 US dollars a month. You get more bang for your buck.

For example if you have a remote job that pays about $4500 US dollars a month you can't get that apartment that is a one bedroom furnished in the USA. But if you move to my city of Mérida, Yucatán in México? You get these huge furnished house with four bedrooms or five bedrooms and three bathrooms and a pool, completely furnished for the rent price of $1411 US dollars a month. Plus many throw in water, trash and some cleaning person once a week for free. So? It is a steal.

Here is the house I am talking about...and it is considered pricey in this market. In Los Angeles it does not exist. Nothing close to that low in price.

https://www.inmuebles24.com/propiedades ... 49844.html

Indeed, many Americans don't realize just how much most US workers make compared to other countries...

[Tainari88]

Indeed, many Americans don't realize just how much most US workers make compared to other countries...

No, they do not. But, many people living in the low-cost nations seriously underestimate how high the cost of living is in the USA in big cities like Chicago (your city), NYC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, New Orleans, Miami, Boston, Philadelphia, etc. It is much cheaper to live in small towns but the prices drop for rent, but you have to consider that they pay a lot less in salaries as well. You have to be very intelligent about all that.

Otherwise, you wind up in Toronto like a friend of mine's husband from Yucatán, making $188 Canadian dollars a week, paying for some small rented room in a bad part of Toronto for 500 Canadian dollars and thinking why did I move to Canada for? to starve to death in the cold after paying my rented room?

BTW, @wat0n my mother worked in short little training sessions for educators in Chicago in the 1980s. Every time she went there she got mugged. Every time. For her Chicago was just very very dangerous. And cold. But she liked the food. It was excellent food options. Hee hee.

[wat0n]

No, they do not. But, many people living in the low-cost nations seriously underestimate how high the cost of living is in the USA in big cities like Chicago (your city), NYC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, New Orleans, Miami, Boston, Philadelphia, etc. It is much cheaper to live in small towns but the prices drop for rent, but you have to consider that they pay a lot less in salaries as well. You have to be very intelligent about all that.

Otherwise, you wind up in Toronto like a friend of mine's husband from Yucatán, making $188 Canadian dollars a week, paying for some small rented room in a bad part of Toronto for 500 Canadian dollars and thinking why did I move to Canada for? to starve to death in the cold after paying my rented room?

This is partly because of the high wages (and zoning). Goods and services that can't be traded internationally will show that pattern - i.e. being more expensive where incomes are higher.

BTW, @wat0n my mother worked in short little training sessions for educators in Chicago in the 1980s. Every time she went there she got mugged. Every time. For her Chicago was just very very dangerous. And cold. But she liked the food. It was excellent food options. Hee hee.

Yup, sounds like Chicago

[late]

But in the 1950s to 1990s, California had the success with much fewer of the problems.

California, by itself, would be the 5th largest economy.

When you get that successful, sh*t happens. Property values skyrocket, as demand exceeds supply. Infrastructure is constantly stressed by increasing demand. Long term solutions can get sidelined by temporary fixes.

That's one of the ironic parts of American suburbs. Building more road causes more suburbs, making congestion worse.

You keep going after dime store political nonsense. What is needed is better planning.

[Puffer Fish]

What is needed is better planning.

But that "better planning" has just not happened.
Despite the fact California is the most progressive state in the country, and one of the most Left-leaning.

Do you think it's a good idea to pursue policies that will only make the problem worse, when the state has already been unable to adequately deal with the problems it already has?

[KurtFF8]

For example, in California both public university tuition and utility rates have been set up according to a progressive income scheme, where households with higher income pay higher rates.
California has an added corporate tax of 8.84 percent.

If this is your idea of what a "leftist state" is, then we're operating on totally different understandings of what the word "leftist" means.

Now, are they as Left as many of the members in this forum are, or like the Soviet Union? Of course not.

This is a misrepresentation of both socialist politics and liberal politics. Liberals aren't on some scale compared to leftists. People like the governor of California hold opposing views to those of socialists.

[late]

But that "better planning" has just not happened.
Despite the fact California is the most progressive state in the country, and one of the most Left-leaning.

Do you think it's a good idea to pursue policies that will only make the problem worse, when the state has already been unable to adequately deal with the problems it already has?

You keep grinding steak into hamburger.

You are what you do, that means Americans are reactionaries... even California.

Politics is not the best way to approach this. You'll never get it if you don't understand how economics drives the bus...