[Alchemy]

So its that time again where Max goes anal on me for supporting my country, South Africa at the Rugby World Cup. Surprisingly this year my favorites are Australia. My heart says SA but logic tells me that Australia has the right balance of youth and experience. Cooper is an extraordinary talent. So what are your predictions for this years tournament?

[Prosthetic Conscience]

3 out of 4 semi-finalists being the southern hemisphere big 3, for starters. All the 6 nations had significant weaknesses this year, and I can't see them beating any of the 3. I don't know what their recent form is, but it wouldn't surprise me if Argentina beat Scotland to get to the quarter finals, and they might even upset England or one of the other better northern teams (finding IRB rankings, I see they're already above Scotland anyway).

I also see New Zealand is definitely in front of SA and Aus in the IRB rankings. I know their ability to screw up in World Cups is legendary, but do you really put NZ below both others, Alchemy?

[Alchemy]

I also see New Zealand is definitely in front of SA and Aus in the IRB rankings. I know their ability to screw up in World Cups is legendary, but do you really put NZ below both others, Alchemy?

At RWC level you wont find more consistent teams than AUS and SA. Over the years I have learnt that rankings and form going into RWC's mean very little. AUS have an extremely well balanced team. I honestly have no faith in NZ at world cup level. Its sad that such a prestigious and successful rugby nation just cant overcome the psychological barrier at RWC level, much like my beloved Proteas.

[Hamster]

NZ are at home - all the more reason to choke again. South Africa are just incredible, so I'll go with them. Although, Australia are obviously never going to go down without a fight. I agree with PC that it probably won't be a Northern team - England are far too complacent, Wales are just shit ( ) and Scotland have never heard of the concept of attack. France are (and always have been) too inconsistent to be a safe choice, and Ireland are perennial flops at the World Cup. That just about sums it up.

[Swagman]

I'd like to see Wallabies vs Kiwis with a Wallaby win

[kingbee]

Anyone for Argentina?

Not that they'll win it of course, but they'll go far I think. Then again, I imagine the fact that most (all?) of their players were based in Europe helped them last time and it might not be a "home" tournament for them this time.

As for Wales, I just wish that we could do it. Last time in NZ we came 3rd, probably due to the similar weather and abundance of sheep. If we can stay relatively injury-free, then we've got a chance. But we've got a highly physical group, and we always seem to have this strange ritual of capitulating to Pacific teams in the RWC. I would kill for us to win, but just beating England would suffice.

I can't figure out whether England's group is good or bad for them- Scotland and Argentina as opposed to one great team and other lesser teams. I have a feeling that those two might get something from England, especially Scotland due to their ever so friendly history.

Whether NZ will do it isn't an easy judgement- I agree with Hamster that being at home might be more of a reason to choke, but surely they're going to win it sometime? They can't go forever being an awesome team and just choking? I reckon this will be their year.

Quarters could be:

Australia vs. Wales
Argentina vs. France
S.A.vs. Eire
NZ vs. England

Australia vs. Argentina
SA. vs. NZ

NZ vs. SA

Of course, this will probably all be bollocks and Russia will end up winning.

[Hamster]

I can't figure out whether England's group is good or bad for them- Scotland and Argentina as opposed to one great team and other lesser teams. I have a feeling that those two might get something from England, especially Scotland due to their ever so friendly history.

England will get cocky and complacent against Scotland (just as they did in the Six Nations) - they will have learned nothing. This time, they hopefully won't get away with it.

As for Wales, I just wish that we could do it. Last time in NZ we came 3rd, probably due to the similar weather and abundance of sheep

[Alchemy]

I'm actually a big Argentinian fan. Really hope that they will get integrated into the Tri Nations as they honestly deserve the development given their previous world cup success. Dont think that they have played enough competitive internationals in recent months though but given the fact that a huge amount of their players are plying their trades in the North who knows.

Given the popularity of Rugby in Wales I cannot figure out why they haven't been able to dominate the sport. What is it about Southern Hemisphere teams that make them so superior? I'm curious to know the answer to this? Northern hemisphere teams play more rugby and are paid a heck of a lot more so what is it? Superior coaches? Player physique? Would be curious to get everyone's views.

[Hamster]

Given the popularity of Rugby in Wales I cannot figure out why they haven't been able to dominate the sport.

Well, we only have 3 million poeple, so it isn't too surprising.

What is it about Southern Hemisphere teams that make them so superior?

Southern Hemisphere teams focus on fitness and basic skills, whereas Northern Hemisphere teams all seem to follow a "bigger is better" approach, and try to win with sheer size. It's all well and good for a while, until you come up against a team like NZ who have a much wider range of ability. Also, there is definitely a culture aspect. Australian, New Zealand and South African athletes are winners. They have a winning mentality, which doesn't exist in the UK, or the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

Examples from other sports:
Graeme Smith: South African cricket captain at 21, and scored a century against England. The next day, English commentators were saying that certain cricketers in their mid to late 20's were "too young" to play for England.

Oscar Pistorius: The guy is just made of awesome. There is no way he could ever be British.

Ian Thorpe: World champion at 15. We'd make sure we spent the years 14-18 of a promising athlete's life coming up with excuses for when they bottle it.

The celebration of Paula Radcliffe's pathetic showing at the 2004 Athens Olympics also highlights the British attitude of fetishising failure.

(Sorry for the rant, but it's kinda true...)

[ace10]

Its hard not to back NZ since they are:

a. the best team in world rugby.
b. playing at home.

Of course their record of choking at the RWC can (and should) be held against them, but this time I think the odds are clearly stacked in their favour.

SA, and to a lesser extent AUS, can also be seen as possible winners.

Does anyone think any northern hemisphere team has any chance? I would like to think France has an outside chance.

[Hamster]

France has the problem of inconsistency - when they play well, they are unstoppable. Unfortunately, they can never be guaranteed to turn up - they have a nasty habit of horrendous off-days, which are very unpredictable - as such, it's hard to back them to go all the way.

[kingbee]

Habana was 19/1 to be top try scorer so I put a cheeky quid on him (each ways). Is there something I'm missing as to why his odds are so long?

[GandalfTheGrey]

surely NZ won't fail this time?

[Hamster]

This is old news now, but it's still funny:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/news/8600865/Japanese-rugby-star-fails-drugs-test-after-trying-to-grow-a-moustache.html

[Alchemy]

LOL Hamster, thats hectic..

Habana was 19/1 to be top try scorer so I put a cheeky quid on him (each ways). Is there something I'm missing as to why his odds are so long?

His form has been terrible of late but still good experience to have in ones squad. Will be interesting to see who ends up as top try scorer ant the tournament. I must say that England's Samoan center looks awesome and Johnny Wilkinson is just brilliant. South Africa have the group of death with Fiji, Samoa and Wales.

I do hope the smaller nations will do well this tournament.

[Hamster]

England's Samoan centre

Don't forget England's assorted collection of other foreigners... Matt Stevens (a drug cheat to boot), Riki Flutey, Shontayne Hape, and Hendrie Fourie. Apparently Martin Johnson has gone for a southern hemisphere pick 'n' mix.

[Alchemy]

RWC about to kick off.

My favorites, the Wallabies. If SA make it to the semis and manage to beat the All Blacks I will change this prediction and will tip the Boks to take it.

[GandalfTheGrey]

NZ the team to beat. I really can't see any of the remaining teams challenging them, but of course it all comes down to the game on the day...

Congrats Wales - A truly complete game against Ireland - great offensive play, and flawless in defense. I'm just sorry they didn't play Australia (they would have been playing Wales if they beat Ireland in the group match), because they would have won, and it would have been a great upset to watch.

France absolutely dynamite against England. But it gives Wales a great chance to make their very first WC grand final.

Just read that Australia edged out South Africa, but didn't see the game. I always had the feeling Australia would arse their way into the top 4. They don't deserve it after being totally pwned by Ireland in the group match. No idea what happened in their game against SA, but I'm guessing they got some lucky penalties and probably capitalised on SA blunders...

I just hope they get cut down to size against NZ.

p/s - stats from Aus v SA game - SA on the left

0 Tries 1
0 (0) Conversions (Missed) 0 (1)
2 (2) Penalty goals (Missed) 2 (0)
1 (1) Drop Goals (Missed) 0 (0)
0 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 0

56% Possession 44%
76% Territory 24%
11'30'' Actual time in opponents 22 3'31''

As predicted, SA clearly dominated but lost courtesy of 2 missed penalties. Australia apparently got a penalty in the 71st minute. Just look at the differences in possession and territory percentages. Sometimes there really is no justice in Rugby.