[Igor Antunov]

Some graphs:





As you can see they are really squeezing their arable land for all it's worth.

[Verv]

The problem is the fact that people would literally just keep having children, irresponsibly, and would not take good care of them. They do not consider limiting their family because of the low quality of life that their kids have -- such a thing would be very irrelevant to a lot of them.

In the long term limiting the population will be good.

Their economy is growing and even though they can feed all their people human life does indeed require a bit more than just some 'food' to be worth living.

[Agent Steel]

China has existed as a world power for thousands of years; I say that whatever decisions they make for their country are probably good ones. They will take over the world.

[Vmax]

China has existed as a world power for thousands of years; I say that whatever decisions they make for their country are probably good ones. They will take over the world.

You have a point , but you can't have women dragged out of bed by the authorities to have an abortion. That's inhuman!

[Agent Steel]

You have a point , but you can't have women dragged out of bed by the authorities to have an abortion. That's inhuman!

Umm, I'm pretty sure they CAN have that happen, since they're doing it. Who's going to stop them? You aren't. Other countries aren't. Whatever they're doing within their country is their business.

[Rilzik]

China is playing a tricky game here and they know it.

What they want is steady to slightly negative growth. Unfortunately long term demographics is a very imprecise field.

Ok they have 1.3B now and in i think 25 or 50 years they will have 1.5B with current demographic projections. That is unsustainable So back when they implemented the one child policy no one was really talking about demographic transition and what that meant for an economy much less the environment.

It's multispectral.

One) you have the newly wealthy that can either afford the fine of having multiple children or can bribe their way.

Two) you have the new middle class mostly han that are mainly single children and talk in china suggest they are spoiled relitively speaking and want two or more children like their wealthier counterparts.

Three) you have minority and rural people that with some restriction are allowed to have more then one child.

Four) you have the poor urban and migrant workers that can not have more then one child nor can they afford the bribes or fines in order to do so.

Five) you have a general sentiment that people (especially younger generations) want more then one child.

China is dealing with all this by contemplating a more relaxed one child policy. What they need is a small boost to population growth despite the pressure to keep population growth down for stability/environmental/sustainability reasons. They are facing a rapidly aging population comparable to developed nations and the need to maintain a steady sized work force relative to the retirees. Their problem unlike Western/Japanese/Russian demographic problems is the one child policy and over population in a largely undeveloped country. I understand that large parts are developed but there is still a large poor population of several hundreds of millions. They need to balance a western like population growth decline with the added effects of a artificial one child policy with increasing state health care costs. To add to the misery they will need to take into account overpopulation even after they do or if they can reach a sustainable population decline (meaning very slow decline) and will have to for a considerable amount of time after successful policy had been implemented. Personally I can only imagine a massive exodus from china or rapid technological progress spurred by need to solve the problems of such over population in such a small space.

They do need to adjust the one child policy as it will be a major hindrance to economic growth in the long term. Sure they can keep feeding peasants into the developing machine in the east but for sustainability (of the economy not environmentally) reasons. If nothing is done it will only increase the impact of the demographic problem developing. 2025-2050 is when it will start, and you can't fix it then because it is a generational problem with the seeds are being planted now. The manufactured effect of the one child policy is multiplied but the now significant effect of urban centers having slow growth rates which is only going to effect Chinese demographics more and more.

Add to that the increasing wage/class disparity, the demographic problem of having tens if not hundreds of millions of more males then females, having a generation of single children, overpopulation no matter what you do... Demographically China is a nightmare.

Ideally they would increase population growth for a short time to off set some of the effects of the one child policy and then ease into a policy that would maintain a very slow population decline until they reach what they believe is sustainable. In my opinion it is impossible to do, too people that support mange population through government... good luck to ya, I wouldn't live in your country.

(/Wall of text)

[Igor Antunov]

the demographic problem of having tens if not hundreds of millions of more males then females,

You're WAY off.

[Rilzik]

care to explain?

And if I am wrong in that one thing, which I don't think I am, then I'm glad if that is all you can comment on.

Even the lowest reports put it at several tens of millions.

[Cheesecake_Marmalade]

That is not a demographics problem, that's a demographics solution. So what if some males don't get any for their whole life? It's practically eugenics. Only the best males are going to get the females. Though I suppose it also means that ugly females are going to get to choose the best men too, so the effect might cancel itself out.

[Rilzik]

No Disgruntled male can lead to disorder. I am not saying it will but it is a possibility that should be taken into account when looking at all the factors contributing to well being.

Generally age is the most important factor when considering disorder. Specifically the middle east and Africa are the best examples. If you look at their demographic situations it is almost but not exactly coincides with the level of disorder.. the younger the population is generally the worse off the country is. You can be more specific though be cause the part of the population that is the cause of disorder is just about always male. So there is a possibility that having disgruntled males in a community can increase the risk of disorder. Male in this position main in military campaigns have generally been accommodated by prostitution or homosexuality, if these things are restricted in my personal opinion on a scale like it is happening in china it could lead to added disgruntlement.

Demographic problems never become solutions. They take generations to work out even when you play god like the Chinese government. Children are not something I feel the government should play with as they see fit.

Sorry was quickly written.

[Cheesecake_Marmalade]

What? You're kidding me. Disgruntled males? Puh-lease. That's just some crazy thing to worry about. No, China is far too populated, so the fact that only 2/3 of their populace will be able to have children will vastly improve quality of life.

[Igor Antunov]

Theres about 30 million males without a female prospect in the PRC.

When you say they won't get any, they will, the prostitution industry is HUGE in china. They will get some.

As for family and kids, well that may lead to frustration for some, but the majority will learn to adapt as single, very busy and industrious men. They will marry themselves to their work/profession, wether that includes business or the military.

Anyway, there is always a surplus of males in all populations, males are more common by birth, there is an evolutionary basis behind that, but I don't feel the need to go into biology.

[Thunderhawk]

For what its worth, there has been a correlation of violence in regions and war by states where the male to female ratio is notably above one. I dont think China will become war like as many of those males were pampered, but I do think it will create interesting pressures.

[Rei Murasame]

I'm pro-choice and I think that this whole situation is basically abhorrent. Obviously not because I care about foetuses or anything like that, but because this is an example of the Patriarchy usurping the role of the woman and trying to rig reproduction to fit its own ridiculous neoliberal, modernist, global supercapitalist and ultimately short-sighted ends. Women must be placed in charge of the selective process. If women are not given control of the eugenic operations in a society, then women ought to rebel and strike against that society until such time as that control is secured.

And that is not treason, that is a matter of acting in defence of national security in the most literal sense.

Basically, the options should be: either women control the reproductive system, or the entire system goes on strike.

It should be made clear to the ruling class that either they will concede on this issue, or face actual serious violence. From my vantage point there is really no difference between the Neoliberal supercaps forcing women to abort, and the Religious fundamentalists forcing women not to abort. Both of them are way out line and should come under threat of violence until they stop it. Women's supreme competence on this issue must be acknowledged.

This is one of the few issues where I think that escalating from strikes and picketing to actual sub-conventional warfare against the State - up to and including guerilla warfare, subversion, and sabotage - can be justified as it is for the sake of securing a nation's posterity.

Also: Fuck the Neoliberal structure.

[/ideology]

[Rilzik]

Right I don't know if I implied otherwise, but I meant to say that it will contribute to other problems. If you think that's shouldn't be taken into consideration fine. In my opinion when there are drastic male/female ratio problems it should be. I think you need to take this into perspective. When you have populations that are 51% female or male you have normal prostitution and other factors. When you have a situation like in China it is different because of the change going on.

Ok In China you have a up and coming middle and upper middle class. Which on a sociological level should be able to get mates because of their resources. So who is left to be this 10 ... 20 .... 30... million population that has to rely on masturbation, prostitution, homosexuality, or emigration. Well it makes sense that it would be those of the middle/lower class that hoped to but couldn't make it into the progress that china is experiencing. I'm not blaming China or anything, this is just a fact. Most places have never gone though a artificially made crisis like this besides through war where it was the male population that was lacking not as in this case where it is females lacking. There are all kinds of studies about age demographics and how they affect stability, everything from the civil war in the US to the protestant revolution in europe. I not saying they cased any of these thing but that they may have been a contributing factor, not matter how small. Further more I am saying that again no matter how small it might ... again might have a factor in the future of China. Like I said before I don't know how it will play out but it will be an effect that will be noticable and may be a contributing factor to the future of China. No matter how small.

Now I don't know how much I have to say things like "no matter how small" and "how small of a contributing factor" before you understand but ya... It's real and I know you know that you because you googled it to reply to me. it's also funny how they stated that 30M figure years ago .... yet the one child policy marches on... what will be the final measure and what will they do I think is the question.

[Cheesecake_Marmalade]

I dunno, I just can't see how a negative birth rate is going to adversely affect the quality of life in China. They're already over-crowded as it is. If it really becomes a problem, China can give cuts to women who birth female children.

[kingbee]

Is contraception free and readily available?

It's not exactly going to be easy to provide free contraception in what's still defined as a developing economy, but condoms are occasionally free with handouts from the government, and they are readily available: either on the side of the street in slightly inconspicuous vending machines or just in the shop.

For teenage girls there are a few organisations that provide abortions for free too.

And I agree with Rilzik somewhat about the demographic nightmare, but for me it's the social impact of it all. Seeing the masses of overweight, spoiled kids who are doted by the inverted pyramid of 4 grandparents and 2 parents is truly going to effect the psychology of that age group. Coupling this up with the ridiculous education system, I'm not surprised more kids aren't going completely crazy.

[Teen Politican]

It's illegal and rare in China (at least in urban regions), as well as inhuman.
And the medias in China will report these kind of news.
The usual procedure is paying a certain amount of fee to have another one (this will discourage people to have more).

[Chill]

What the hell is all this? I have a number of classmates in whose family there are more than one child. They just need to pay a fee of 1000-2000 in terms of dollars. I know a guy he has 4 siblings as his family is wealthy enough to support that.
I also know a girl. Her family couldn't afford the fee. They just paid half and it was done.
Where the hell did this thread come from? You dreamed it?
It really surprised me that your guys would spend so much time on the typing and discussing without spending anytime questioning the truth of this story...
I don't see too much to blame on this policy. There are 1.3 billion people in this country and each new born baby means less resources for others. If a lot of people have more than one child, then a lot of people will starve to death. At least a lot of people won't get enough resources to let them have a satisfying life. The reason that many Chinese families want to have more children is because they want a boy. It not too unfair to let them pay 'taxes' for taking resources from others, especially out of this reason.
I can't tell you how, many single childs themselves are gratitude to this policy. The fact is most families can only support one child through primary school to college, (considering the surprisingly high education expense due to fierce competition) and their life would be dramatically changed if there were two.
The competitiveness of this whole generation is greatly enhance as their parents focus their money on one child, including being able to send them to developed countries to study, which is very important to broaden the horizon.

[FreeStyle]

this is one of the typical inuhumane characteristics of the chinese government and chinese culture.peorid.