- 10 Mar 2009 11:44
#1829489
http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical...politics_tibet
Geopolitical Diary: The Geopolitics of Tibet
March 10, 2009 | 0156 GMT
Geopolitical Diary icon
Anxieties have been running high in China ahead of March 10, the 50th anniversary of the uprising in Tibet, when Tibet’s spiritual and political leader the Dalai Lama fled into exile and China stepped up a war with Tibetan guerrillas to rein in the separatist region. The Chinese are inherently prickly about this anniversary, which is one of several prominent anniversaries this year; 2009 marks the 10th anniversary of the Falun Gong demonstrations, the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident and the 60th anniversary of the formation of the People’s Republic of China.
Even without the symbolism of these dates, Chinese authorities are acutely aware of the potential for Tibetan discontent to explode. They were reminded when riots broke out this time last year in the Tibetan capital Lhasa, threatening to spoil Beijing’s 2008 Olympic Games. Since then, security forces have increased their presence in the province in preparation for the anniversary. At the same time, economic recession is generating wider social instability throughout China, making the Communist Party even more nervous about maintaining control. In recent months, security has gotten tighter — especially in Tibet, where foreign visitors are banned, dissidents and suspected militants are being arrested and soldiers are patrolling the streets.
The name Tibet excites effusions of political emotion the world over, but for China the Tibet issue is not about ideologies, which change with time and temperament. For China, Tibet is about unchanging geopolitical imperatives — the core geographical and political realities of the country’s existence and survival.
The Chinese heartland consists of the fertile river plains and coasts in the eastern half of the Asian landmass where the Yellow and Yangtze rivers empty into the East China Sea. These are the traditional lands of the Han Chinese. To the north, west and southwest are vast expanses of inhospitable and rugged terrain. The two gigantic western provinces, Xinjiang and Tibet, stretch toward the natural borders formed by the Himalayan and Tian Shan mountains and the deserts of Central Asia.
Tibet is the enormous plateau of southwestern China that leads up to the Himalayas. The plateau overlooks China’s heartland and is crucial as the source from which the country’s major rivers flow. It also forms a high ground on the eastern side of the mountain range that could serve as a defensible foothold for any opposing force stationed there. To preempt such a threat, the Han Chinese core has always sought to extend its territory all the way west to the mountains, to distance and protect itself from successive waves of nomadic tribes and invaders.
Buffer regions in the west have enabled the Chinese to focus their attention where most needed: on the eastern coasts where they could prosper through trade or keep guard against potential rivals such as the Koreans, Japanese and later Europeans.
This geopolitical setting defines China’s perceptions and reactions to its far west and the ethnic groups that live there. Beijing fears that if the Tibetans slip away, they would create a cascade effect throughout the country, enabling China’s many other minority groups to break off. Eventually greater China would disintegrate, and devoting energy to the restoration of order in the west would leave the heartlands in the east exposed to China’s most powerful rivals.
For this reason, Beijing is intensely fearful that foreign powers could manipulate its buffer regions to undermine its control of the country’s interior. Surrendering or losing Tibet could leave a fatal structural crack in Chinese security. Thus, China occasionally lashes out against foreign countries whose populaces hold notions of Tibetan independence and whose politicians entertain the Dalai Lama — such as India (where the Dalai Lama lives in exile), Europe (especially France at the moment) or the United States. Beijing is constitutionally paranoid that whenever it begins to prosper and expand, outsiders plot to subvert and destroy it.
Because of the stringent security controls China has imposed on the region, March 10 could pass without incident. If the Tibetans do suddenly revolt, they will be quashed just as suddenly. Ethnic Tibetan dissidents or others could create incidents in other regions, outside of the spotlight. But whatever happens, the geopolitics will not change. China needs Tibet, but Tibet is a potential weakness that could be exploited. To compromise on Tibet, from the Chinese point of view, would be to sport with death.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200...conomic_stress
China: Facing 'Hostile Forces' and Economic Stress
March 9, 2009 | 1720 GMT
PETER PARKS/AFP/Getty Images
Chinese paramilitary police marching on Tiananmen Square on March 8
Summary
As Chinese security forces step up operations to prevent unrest marking the 50th anniversary of the Tibet uprising on March 10, the government is looking ahead to a year of potentially inflammatory anniversaries that might stir up disorder in a year already facing social instability due to the economic slowdown. But even beyond these potentially sensitive dates, Beijing worries that economic and social stresses in China this year could create an opportunity for “hostile forces†to exploit and instigate social unrest to undermine the Chinese state.
Analysis
Related Special Topic Page
* China’s Economic Imbalance
China has tightened security in Tibet ahead of the March 10 anniversary of the 1959 Tibet uprising, with particular attention to avoid a repeat of the 2008 Lhasa riots. Beijing also is increasing awareness at its embassies abroad and stepping up efforts to collect information overseas about Tibetan independence supporters and potential foreign intelligence backing of Tibetan activists and militants. At home, Chinese authorities have run a series of articles in the official state media showcasing the improvements made in Tibet over the past 50 years, emphasizing that it is only a small number of unsavory elements that instigate unrest and trouble in Tibet.
While Tibet has been at the forefront of Chinese public relations and security initiatives, there are several other potentially sensitive anniversaries that Beijing is keeping a wary eye on this year. June marks the 20th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, which itself was presaged in part by economic problems in China. New employment opportunities are drying up amid the economic slump (registered urban unemployment, which does not include migrant labor, rose from 4 percent to 4.2 percent in 2008), and the number of Chinese university graduates is rising (6 million to 7 million are expected in 2009). With these numbers looming, Beijing is looking for ways to keep students’ attention on something other than criticism of the government — from encouraging business banks to increase internship opportunities for recent graduates to facilitating programs to offer work to urban graduates in rural areas.
July brings the 10th anniversary of the 1999 banning of Falun Gong, a move that came only after weeks of indecision following the mass gathering of thousands of Falun Gong supporters around the central government compound in Beijing. In 2008, Chinese authorities were particularly concerned that Falun Gong would try to disrupt the Olympics, but the group and its supporters took a much lower profile than pro-Tibetan groups did in the run-up to the games. There have been reports from China, however, that some recent security incidents in Beijing might have been the work of Falun Gong supporters, including a case of attempted self-immolation near the Wangfujing shopping district that has been publicly attributed to ethnic Uighurs from the Xinjiang region. Earlier in 2009, there were reports of Chinese money with pro-Falun Gong messages written on it being passed around, suggesting plans for a resurgence of activity.
In October, China will mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The government and security forces are concerned that this might also provide a target for protest — from groups like the Tibetans and Falun Gong, as well as from pro-democracy advocates, ethnic Uighur militants and citizens disgruntled with government performance amid the economic slowdown. In some ways, it is this latter group that Beijing is most anxious about this year; the government’s worries are compounded by the economic slowdown, which has seen tens of millions of migrant workers return to the countryside without jobs.
Security officials have warned that these out-of-work laborers could be a source of instability or, more ominously, a target for domestic or foreign instigators to exploit to undermine the Chinese government. The All-China Federation of Trade Unions has warned that China must be vigilant and prevent “hostile forces†from taking advantage of the new masses of unemployed migrants, while the Ministry of Public Security is sending work teams to the countryside and cities to assess social stability and stress factors. Chinese President Hu Jintao has led a chorus of Chinese officials calling on the People’s Liberation Army and the People’s Armed Police Force to be first and foremost loyal to the Party, and to be on alert for rising instability in China due to economic stresses and foreign and domestic hostile forces.
Chinese officials viewed 2007 as a test year for the country’s security, with Olympics preparations seen as the major potential target for all those with grievances against China and its leadership. But Beijing also counted on the Olympics to serve as a unifying force, rallying the Chinese into a nationalistic fervor that would weaken the impact of external groups seeking to embarrass the Chinese government or change its behavior.
In 2009, Beijing will try to use this sense of embattlement from foreign pressure over China’s economy or foreign “interference†in Tibet to rally the population. But this year, there are no Olympic Games to serve as a focal point for showcasing Chinese pride and accomplishment. And with China’s economic problems (for which Beijing has assiduously sought to blame everyone but itself), cracks have begun to appear in the veneer of nationalism. They appear not only because of individual reactions to economic problems, but also as various provinces slip into local protectionism, seeking their own recovery over that of the nation.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,7565490.story
Tibet's season of protest may be foiled by fear
On 50th anniversary of the province's failed uprising, China takes unprecedented security measures.
By Barbara Demick
March 10, 2009
Reporting from Beijing — If it happened elsewhere, it might have been dismissed as a teenage prank.
A couple of 15-year-olds last year hung a Tibetan banner on the wall of their classroom next to portraits of Mao Tse-tung and Deng Xiaoping. They drew Xs over the faces of the former Chinese leaders and scrawled "Long Live the Dalai Lama" on the wall.
But in China, the incident was taken dead seriously. Three boys who attend a Tibetan school in Sichuan province were arrested, and one of them, who confessed to being the ringleader, was held and interrogated for a month.
This year, the 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's exile to India, the boy is under virtual house arrest -- by his own parents.
"They want to make sure he doesn't do anything like that again. They don't want him to get arrested again or hurt," said a relative, who asked not to be quoted by name.
As the traditional season for protests against Chinese rule begins, many of China's 2.8 million Tibetans are in a similar quandary. As sure as the melting of the snow on the Tibetan plateau, protests erupt about this time of year as Tibetans mark the anniversary of a failed uprising that began March 10, 1959, and led to their spiritual leader's exile. But with the special anniversary this year, the Chinese have taken extraordinary security measures, hoping to prevent a recurrence of last year's protests, the most violent in decades.
Exact numbers are difficult to come by in China, but residents of the Tibetan areas say that tens of thousands of paramilitary troops have been deployed. Telephones are tapped; cellphones and Internet connections disrupted.
Foreigners are barred from entering not only the Tibetan autonomous region, but heavily Tibetan areas in Qinghai, Sichuan and Gansu provinces.
The mountain roads leading into Tibetan villages are clogged with armored personnel carriers and buses filled with riot police. The security forces make their presence felt by cruising up and down main streets, or conducting training in as public a way as possible.
"They made a picture of a man and are using itfor target practice. They do it to scare us," said Tashi, a 20-year-old student from Ganzi (known to Tibetans as Kardze), in Sichuan province. Like many Tibetans, Tashi refuses to be identified by anything other than a first name for fear of retaliation for speaking out.
In Lhasa, the Tibetan capital, security cameras are ubiquitous.
"You feel like you're being watched all the time. It feels very uncomfortable," said Tsering, a 38-year-old Tibetan construction worker from Lhasa, who left late last year.
Tibetans say they would like to do something to commemorate the victims of last year's violence, who they say number more than 200. (The Chinese counter that 21 died and that most were Chinese.)
"We would like to do a candlelight demonstration for the people who died, but we are afraid. So we will keep silent," said Tashi.
But to demonstrate or not has become a subject of great debate among young Tibetans.
"Our teachers have told us not to be stupid and talk about freedom," said a 19-year-old student from Tongren, a monastery town also known as Repkong, in Qinghai province, that has been a hotbed of ethnic unrest.
"Everybody is afraid. There are armed police all over our town," he said.
The problem for Tibetans is that the Chinese treat any expression of Tibetan identity -- even waving a flag or posting a portrait of the Dalai Lama -- as criminal activity.
Human Rights Watch on Monday issued a detailed report saying that China had arrested thousands of Tibetans on the vaguest of charges, failing to disclose what crimes had been committed or where people were being held.
"The authorities have conflated nonviolent expression of political opinion and violent protests under the label of criminal separatist activities," the report said.
Two other human rights organizations, Amnesty International and Reporters Without Borders, also blasted the Chinese in new reports for keeping Tibetan areas closed to foreign observers.
So far only a few Tibetans have dared defy the stifling security that has blanketed the Tibetan areas from Lhasa to Qinghai, Sichuan and Gansu provinces.
Early Monday, a police car and a fire engine were bombed with homemade explosives after a dispute at a lumberyard in the Tibetan enclave of Golog, in Qinghai province. No injuries were reported.
Last month, a 24-year-old Tibetan monk in Sichuan set himself on fire to protest Chinese rule.
But most protests have been silent, passive affairs -- for example, many Tibetans refused to celebrate during their own New Year's holiday in commemoration of those killed or imprisoned in last year's uprising.
Even the ethnic Chinese are cowed by the heavy hand of security, which has all but killed off the tourist trade in places like Lhasa, the Himalayan city so beloved by backpackers and seekers of spiritual solace.
"It is very intense. Our telephones and cellphones are under surveillance.
Paramilitary are everywhere, at all the major intersections and the little streets too," said the Chinese manager of a small inn, which, like most others in the city, had no customers.
The Chinese government has defended the measures as justified in light of last year's riots, in which hundreds of Chinese-owned businesses in Lhasa were torched.
"Is it not crucial for the central government to take action to maintain social stability in Tibet, to protect the innocent from harm?" said an English-language commentary by the state-run New China News Agency. "Any other government in the world would be on alert too, had they been in China's shoes."
Speaking Monday in Beijing on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, the annual legislative gathering, Fu Hongyu, a top official of the Ministry of Public Security, acknowledged the heightened security.
"We have made due deployment and tightened controls at border ports and key areas and passages along the border in Tibet," said Fu.
Champa Phuntsok, the Chinese-installed chairman of the Tibetan Autonomous Region, appears confident that this year, Tibetans will behave. "Riots like those last March won't happen again," he predicted at the People's Congress.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...7hQXxovnWJwDVA
China deploys huge security across Tibet
1 hour ago
BEIJING (AFP) — China deployed massive security across the Tibetan plateau Tuesday on the sensitive 50th anniversary of a failed uprising against Chinese rule that forced the Dalai Lama into exile.
Residents of Tibet's capital, Lhasa, reported no protests Tuesday morning but -- as in other Tibetan areas of China -- it appeared to be partly because armed soldiers and police were patrolling the streets in a show of force.
Peaceful protests led by Buddhist monks in Lhasa on last year's anniversary erupted four days later into anti-Chinese rioting that swept into other parts of western China with Tibetan populations.
"Armed police with guns are at the intersections," a Han Chinese woman who works at a Lhasa hotel told AFP by telephone.
"People don't feel nervous because the police are here."
Last year's unrest deeply angered China's leaders as they prepared for the Beijing Olympics in August, and they responded with a huge military crackdown across Tibet that triggered condemnation around the world.
Signalling Beijing's lingering concern, Chinese President Hu Jintao invoked one of China's proudest nationalist symbols, the Great Wall, in a call Monday to end Tibetan separatism.
"We must build up a Great Wall in our fight against separatism and safeguard the unity of the motherland, and push Tibet's basic stability toward long-term security," he urged.
Tibetan exiles say more than 200 people died when Chinese security forces clamped down following last year's unrest. Authorities deny this, saying that "rioters" were responsible for 21 deaths.
The Dalai Lama, who embarked on a dangerous escape into India a week after the uprising on March 10, 1959, was due to address followers from his exiled base in the Indian town of Dharamashala at 0330 GMT Tuesday.
Tens of thousands of supporters have packed the town for the event, which will be broadcast on the Internet to exiles and supporters worldwide.
The 73-year-old Dalai Lama retains enormous support among the roughly six million devoutly Buddhist Tibetans who live in China, despite Chinese efforts to demonise him.
Chinese authorities say he wants independence for his Himalayan homeland. The Dalai Lama denies this, saying he wants greater autonomy for Tibetans and an end to widespread repression.
Protests have flared in Tibetan regions of western China over recent weeks despite the enormous security.
One Tibetan monk in Sichuan province set himself alight with petrol while holding an image of the Dalai Lama. Chinese state media reported that he was being treated in hospital.
China has also sought to seal Tibet and adjacent Tibetan regions of western China from independent observers and foreign reporters.
Foreign tourists are banned from visiting Tibet in March, travel agencies have told AFP, although the government insists the region remains open.
Police Tuesday turned away AFP reporters who attempted to visit the La Jia monastery in a remote mountainous region of Qinghai province bordering Tibet.
"This is not an open place. You can't be here," a police officer said.
They were escorted from nearby La Jia town, which is about 300 kilometres (185 miles) south of the provincial capital Xining.
The reporters saw checkpoints and armed security forces on the roads.
China has ruled Tibet since 1951 after sending in troops to "liberate" the region the previous year.
Tibet's government-in-exile says tens of thousands were slaughtered in the crackdown following the 1959 uprising, with 87,000 people dying between March and October of that year alone.
In Washington, meanwhile, hundreds of Tibetan exiles gathered outside the White House and bowed their heads for a two-minute silence at 1600 GMT Monday -- midnight in the Himalayan region.
The protesters marched to the Chinese embassy and were joined by dissident Wei Jingsheng, who has questioned Beijing's historical clams to the region.
"The Tibetans have been deprived of their right to protest but we can see that they are very strong," Wei told AFP.
Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved.
Geopolitical Diary: The Geopolitics of Tibet
March 10, 2009 | 0156 GMT
Geopolitical Diary icon
Anxieties have been running high in China ahead of March 10, the 50th anniversary of the uprising in Tibet, when Tibet’s spiritual and political leader the Dalai Lama fled into exile and China stepped up a war with Tibetan guerrillas to rein in the separatist region. The Chinese are inherently prickly about this anniversary, which is one of several prominent anniversaries this year; 2009 marks the 10th anniversary of the Falun Gong demonstrations, the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident and the 60th anniversary of the formation of the People’s Republic of China.
Even without the symbolism of these dates, Chinese authorities are acutely aware of the potential for Tibetan discontent to explode. They were reminded when riots broke out this time last year in the Tibetan capital Lhasa, threatening to spoil Beijing’s 2008 Olympic Games. Since then, security forces have increased their presence in the province in preparation for the anniversary. At the same time, economic recession is generating wider social instability throughout China, making the Communist Party even more nervous about maintaining control. In recent months, security has gotten tighter — especially in Tibet, where foreign visitors are banned, dissidents and suspected militants are being arrested and soldiers are patrolling the streets.
The name Tibet excites effusions of political emotion the world over, but for China the Tibet issue is not about ideologies, which change with time and temperament. For China, Tibet is about unchanging geopolitical imperatives — the core geographical and political realities of the country’s existence and survival.
The Chinese heartland consists of the fertile river plains and coasts in the eastern half of the Asian landmass where the Yellow and Yangtze rivers empty into the East China Sea. These are the traditional lands of the Han Chinese. To the north, west and southwest are vast expanses of inhospitable and rugged terrain. The two gigantic western provinces, Xinjiang and Tibet, stretch toward the natural borders formed by the Himalayan and Tian Shan mountains and the deserts of Central Asia.
Tibet is the enormous plateau of southwestern China that leads up to the Himalayas. The plateau overlooks China’s heartland and is crucial as the source from which the country’s major rivers flow. It also forms a high ground on the eastern side of the mountain range that could serve as a defensible foothold for any opposing force stationed there. To preempt such a threat, the Han Chinese core has always sought to extend its territory all the way west to the mountains, to distance and protect itself from successive waves of nomadic tribes and invaders.
Buffer regions in the west have enabled the Chinese to focus their attention where most needed: on the eastern coasts where they could prosper through trade or keep guard against potential rivals such as the Koreans, Japanese and later Europeans.
This geopolitical setting defines China’s perceptions and reactions to its far west and the ethnic groups that live there. Beijing fears that if the Tibetans slip away, they would create a cascade effect throughout the country, enabling China’s many other minority groups to break off. Eventually greater China would disintegrate, and devoting energy to the restoration of order in the west would leave the heartlands in the east exposed to China’s most powerful rivals.
For this reason, Beijing is intensely fearful that foreign powers could manipulate its buffer regions to undermine its control of the country’s interior. Surrendering or losing Tibet could leave a fatal structural crack in Chinese security. Thus, China occasionally lashes out against foreign countries whose populaces hold notions of Tibetan independence and whose politicians entertain the Dalai Lama — such as India (where the Dalai Lama lives in exile), Europe (especially France at the moment) or the United States. Beijing is constitutionally paranoid that whenever it begins to prosper and expand, outsiders plot to subvert and destroy it.
Because of the stringent security controls China has imposed on the region, March 10 could pass without incident. If the Tibetans do suddenly revolt, they will be quashed just as suddenly. Ethnic Tibetan dissidents or others could create incidents in other regions, outside of the spotlight. But whatever happens, the geopolitics will not change. China needs Tibet, but Tibet is a potential weakness that could be exploited. To compromise on Tibet, from the Chinese point of view, would be to sport with death.
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200...conomic_stress
China: Facing 'Hostile Forces' and Economic Stress
March 9, 2009 | 1720 GMT
PETER PARKS/AFP/Getty Images
Chinese paramilitary police marching on Tiananmen Square on March 8
Summary
As Chinese security forces step up operations to prevent unrest marking the 50th anniversary of the Tibet uprising on March 10, the government is looking ahead to a year of potentially inflammatory anniversaries that might stir up disorder in a year already facing social instability due to the economic slowdown. But even beyond these potentially sensitive dates, Beijing worries that economic and social stresses in China this year could create an opportunity for “hostile forces†to exploit and instigate social unrest to undermine the Chinese state.
Analysis
Related Special Topic Page
* China’s Economic Imbalance
China has tightened security in Tibet ahead of the March 10 anniversary of the 1959 Tibet uprising, with particular attention to avoid a repeat of the 2008 Lhasa riots. Beijing also is increasing awareness at its embassies abroad and stepping up efforts to collect information overseas about Tibetan independence supporters and potential foreign intelligence backing of Tibetan activists and militants. At home, Chinese authorities have run a series of articles in the official state media showcasing the improvements made in Tibet over the past 50 years, emphasizing that it is only a small number of unsavory elements that instigate unrest and trouble in Tibet.
While Tibet has been at the forefront of Chinese public relations and security initiatives, there are several other potentially sensitive anniversaries that Beijing is keeping a wary eye on this year. June marks the 20th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident, which itself was presaged in part by economic problems in China. New employment opportunities are drying up amid the economic slump (registered urban unemployment, which does not include migrant labor, rose from 4 percent to 4.2 percent in 2008), and the number of Chinese university graduates is rising (6 million to 7 million are expected in 2009). With these numbers looming, Beijing is looking for ways to keep students’ attention on something other than criticism of the government — from encouraging business banks to increase internship opportunities for recent graduates to facilitating programs to offer work to urban graduates in rural areas.
July brings the 10th anniversary of the 1999 banning of Falun Gong, a move that came only after weeks of indecision following the mass gathering of thousands of Falun Gong supporters around the central government compound in Beijing. In 2008, Chinese authorities were particularly concerned that Falun Gong would try to disrupt the Olympics, but the group and its supporters took a much lower profile than pro-Tibetan groups did in the run-up to the games. There have been reports from China, however, that some recent security incidents in Beijing might have been the work of Falun Gong supporters, including a case of attempted self-immolation near the Wangfujing shopping district that has been publicly attributed to ethnic Uighurs from the Xinjiang region. Earlier in 2009, there were reports of Chinese money with pro-Falun Gong messages written on it being passed around, suggesting plans for a resurgence of activity.
In October, China will mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The government and security forces are concerned that this might also provide a target for protest — from groups like the Tibetans and Falun Gong, as well as from pro-democracy advocates, ethnic Uighur militants and citizens disgruntled with government performance amid the economic slowdown. In some ways, it is this latter group that Beijing is most anxious about this year; the government’s worries are compounded by the economic slowdown, which has seen tens of millions of migrant workers return to the countryside without jobs.
Security officials have warned that these out-of-work laborers could be a source of instability or, more ominously, a target for domestic or foreign instigators to exploit to undermine the Chinese government. The All-China Federation of Trade Unions has warned that China must be vigilant and prevent “hostile forces†from taking advantage of the new masses of unemployed migrants, while the Ministry of Public Security is sending work teams to the countryside and cities to assess social stability and stress factors. Chinese President Hu Jintao has led a chorus of Chinese officials calling on the People’s Liberation Army and the People’s Armed Police Force to be first and foremost loyal to the Party, and to be on alert for rising instability in China due to economic stresses and foreign and domestic hostile forces.
Chinese officials viewed 2007 as a test year for the country’s security, with Olympics preparations seen as the major potential target for all those with grievances against China and its leadership. But Beijing also counted on the Olympics to serve as a unifying force, rallying the Chinese into a nationalistic fervor that would weaken the impact of external groups seeking to embarrass the Chinese government or change its behavior.
In 2009, Beijing will try to use this sense of embattlement from foreign pressure over China’s economy or foreign “interference†in Tibet to rally the population. But this year, there are no Olympic Games to serve as a focal point for showcasing Chinese pride and accomplishment. And with China’s economic problems (for which Beijing has assiduously sought to blame everyone but itself), cracks have begun to appear in the veneer of nationalism. They appear not only because of individual reactions to economic problems, but also as various provinces slip into local protectionism, seeking their own recovery over that of the nation.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,7565490.story
Tibet's season of protest may be foiled by fear
On 50th anniversary of the province's failed uprising, China takes unprecedented security measures.
By Barbara Demick
March 10, 2009
Reporting from Beijing — If it happened elsewhere, it might have been dismissed as a teenage prank.
A couple of 15-year-olds last year hung a Tibetan banner on the wall of their classroom next to portraits of Mao Tse-tung and Deng Xiaoping. They drew Xs over the faces of the former Chinese leaders and scrawled "Long Live the Dalai Lama" on the wall.
But in China, the incident was taken dead seriously. Three boys who attend a Tibetan school in Sichuan province were arrested, and one of them, who confessed to being the ringleader, was held and interrogated for a month.
This year, the 50th anniversary of the Dalai Lama's exile to India, the boy is under virtual house arrest -- by his own parents.
"They want to make sure he doesn't do anything like that again. They don't want him to get arrested again or hurt," said a relative, who asked not to be quoted by name.
As the traditional season for protests against Chinese rule begins, many of China's 2.8 million Tibetans are in a similar quandary. As sure as the melting of the snow on the Tibetan plateau, protests erupt about this time of year as Tibetans mark the anniversary of a failed uprising that began March 10, 1959, and led to their spiritual leader's exile. But with the special anniversary this year, the Chinese have taken extraordinary security measures, hoping to prevent a recurrence of last year's protests, the most violent in decades.
Exact numbers are difficult to come by in China, but residents of the Tibetan areas say that tens of thousands of paramilitary troops have been deployed. Telephones are tapped; cellphones and Internet connections disrupted.
Foreigners are barred from entering not only the Tibetan autonomous region, but heavily Tibetan areas in Qinghai, Sichuan and Gansu provinces.
The mountain roads leading into Tibetan villages are clogged with armored personnel carriers and buses filled with riot police. The security forces make their presence felt by cruising up and down main streets, or conducting training in as public a way as possible.
"They made a picture of a man and are using itfor target practice. They do it to scare us," said Tashi, a 20-year-old student from Ganzi (known to Tibetans as Kardze), in Sichuan province. Like many Tibetans, Tashi refuses to be identified by anything other than a first name for fear of retaliation for speaking out.
In Lhasa, the Tibetan capital, security cameras are ubiquitous.
"You feel like you're being watched all the time. It feels very uncomfortable," said Tsering, a 38-year-old Tibetan construction worker from Lhasa, who left late last year.
Tibetans say they would like to do something to commemorate the victims of last year's violence, who they say number more than 200. (The Chinese counter that 21 died and that most were Chinese.)
"We would like to do a candlelight demonstration for the people who died, but we are afraid. So we will keep silent," said Tashi.
But to demonstrate or not has become a subject of great debate among young Tibetans.
"Our teachers have told us not to be stupid and talk about freedom," said a 19-year-old student from Tongren, a monastery town also known as Repkong, in Qinghai province, that has been a hotbed of ethnic unrest.
"Everybody is afraid. There are armed police all over our town," he said.
The problem for Tibetans is that the Chinese treat any expression of Tibetan identity -- even waving a flag or posting a portrait of the Dalai Lama -- as criminal activity.
Human Rights Watch on Monday issued a detailed report saying that China had arrested thousands of Tibetans on the vaguest of charges, failing to disclose what crimes had been committed or where people were being held.
"The authorities have conflated nonviolent expression of political opinion and violent protests under the label of criminal separatist activities," the report said.
Two other human rights organizations, Amnesty International and Reporters Without Borders, also blasted the Chinese in new reports for keeping Tibetan areas closed to foreign observers.
So far only a few Tibetans have dared defy the stifling security that has blanketed the Tibetan areas from Lhasa to Qinghai, Sichuan and Gansu provinces.
Early Monday, a police car and a fire engine were bombed with homemade explosives after a dispute at a lumberyard in the Tibetan enclave of Golog, in Qinghai province. No injuries were reported.
Last month, a 24-year-old Tibetan monk in Sichuan set himself on fire to protest Chinese rule.
But most protests have been silent, passive affairs -- for example, many Tibetans refused to celebrate during their own New Year's holiday in commemoration of those killed or imprisoned in last year's uprising.
Even the ethnic Chinese are cowed by the heavy hand of security, which has all but killed off the tourist trade in places like Lhasa, the Himalayan city so beloved by backpackers and seekers of spiritual solace.
"It is very intense. Our telephones and cellphones are under surveillance.
Paramilitary are everywhere, at all the major intersections and the little streets too," said the Chinese manager of a small inn, which, like most others in the city, had no customers.
The Chinese government has defended the measures as justified in light of last year's riots, in which hundreds of Chinese-owned businesses in Lhasa were torched.
"Is it not crucial for the central government to take action to maintain social stability in Tibet, to protect the innocent from harm?" said an English-language commentary by the state-run New China News Agency. "Any other government in the world would be on alert too, had they been in China's shoes."
Speaking Monday in Beijing on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, the annual legislative gathering, Fu Hongyu, a top official of the Ministry of Public Security, acknowledged the heightened security.
"We have made due deployment and tightened controls at border ports and key areas and passages along the border in Tibet," said Fu.
Champa Phuntsok, the Chinese-installed chairman of the Tibetan Autonomous Region, appears confident that this year, Tibetans will behave. "Riots like those last March won't happen again," he predicted at the People's Congress.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...7hQXxovnWJwDVA
China deploys huge security across Tibet
1 hour ago
BEIJING (AFP) — China deployed massive security across the Tibetan plateau Tuesday on the sensitive 50th anniversary of a failed uprising against Chinese rule that forced the Dalai Lama into exile.
Residents of Tibet's capital, Lhasa, reported no protests Tuesday morning but -- as in other Tibetan areas of China -- it appeared to be partly because armed soldiers and police were patrolling the streets in a show of force.
Peaceful protests led by Buddhist monks in Lhasa on last year's anniversary erupted four days later into anti-Chinese rioting that swept into other parts of western China with Tibetan populations.
"Armed police with guns are at the intersections," a Han Chinese woman who works at a Lhasa hotel told AFP by telephone.
"People don't feel nervous because the police are here."
Last year's unrest deeply angered China's leaders as they prepared for the Beijing Olympics in August, and they responded with a huge military crackdown across Tibet that triggered condemnation around the world.
Signalling Beijing's lingering concern, Chinese President Hu Jintao invoked one of China's proudest nationalist symbols, the Great Wall, in a call Monday to end Tibetan separatism.
"We must build up a Great Wall in our fight against separatism and safeguard the unity of the motherland, and push Tibet's basic stability toward long-term security," he urged.
Tibetan exiles say more than 200 people died when Chinese security forces clamped down following last year's unrest. Authorities deny this, saying that "rioters" were responsible for 21 deaths.
The Dalai Lama, who embarked on a dangerous escape into India a week after the uprising on March 10, 1959, was due to address followers from his exiled base in the Indian town of Dharamashala at 0330 GMT Tuesday.
Tens of thousands of supporters have packed the town for the event, which will be broadcast on the Internet to exiles and supporters worldwide.
The 73-year-old Dalai Lama retains enormous support among the roughly six million devoutly Buddhist Tibetans who live in China, despite Chinese efforts to demonise him.
Chinese authorities say he wants independence for his Himalayan homeland. The Dalai Lama denies this, saying he wants greater autonomy for Tibetans and an end to widespread repression.
Protests have flared in Tibetan regions of western China over recent weeks despite the enormous security.
One Tibetan monk in Sichuan province set himself alight with petrol while holding an image of the Dalai Lama. Chinese state media reported that he was being treated in hospital.
China has also sought to seal Tibet and adjacent Tibetan regions of western China from independent observers and foreign reporters.
Foreign tourists are banned from visiting Tibet in March, travel agencies have told AFP, although the government insists the region remains open.
Police Tuesday turned away AFP reporters who attempted to visit the La Jia monastery in a remote mountainous region of Qinghai province bordering Tibet.
"This is not an open place. You can't be here," a police officer said.
They were escorted from nearby La Jia town, which is about 300 kilometres (185 miles) south of the provincial capital Xining.
The reporters saw checkpoints and armed security forces on the roads.
China has ruled Tibet since 1951 after sending in troops to "liberate" the region the previous year.
Tibet's government-in-exile says tens of thousands were slaughtered in the crackdown following the 1959 uprising, with 87,000 people dying between March and October of that year alone.
In Washington, meanwhile, hundreds of Tibetan exiles gathered outside the White House and bowed their heads for a two-minute silence at 1600 GMT Monday -- midnight in the Himalayan region.
The protesters marched to the Chinese embassy and were joined by dissident Wei Jingsheng, who has questioned Beijing's historical clams to the region.
"The Tibetans have been deprived of their right to protest but we can see that they are very strong," Wei told AFP.
Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved.
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