[jimjilin]

fagan you are so wrong!

Do you think it is a mere coincidence that communist countries have such a uniquely bad human rights record?

Lenin: prison camps, loss of freedom, poverty, famine, dictatorship
Stalin: prison camps, loss of freedom, poverty, famine, dictatorship
Mao: prison camps, loss of freedom, poverty, famine, dictatorship
Pol Pot: prison camps, loss of freedom, poverty, famine, dictatorship
Kim Jong-il: prison camps, loss of freedom, poverty, famine, dictatorship

Hmm... Could there be a pattern emerging?

Communism = slavery and poverty Accept it!

[Igor Antunov]

jimjilin, you speak of totalitarianism.

[Ombrageux]

This is an enormous problem. Historically, states with authoritarian and archaic political cultures combined with breakneck economic modernization tend to be extremely unstable and aggressive in times of economic downturn. Economic change brings about massive social dislocation and disruption, destroying traditional social networks and safety nets. It concentrates millions of people, without property or a guaranteed livelihood, into the cities, where they can become potential revolutionaries when they no longer have the means to live. This was the pattern in Germany and Japan, in both of which, economic downturn spelled a sharp turn to the right, nationalism, and the aspiration by local elites to achieve their independence from the global economy by carving out their own empires.

I am not an expert on the situation in China, but this very troubling. I doubt there will be anything like revolution. More likely, the insecure Chinese elite will resort to nationalism and xenophobia, no doubt the Japanese and Taiwanese will be the targets, and the international repercussions could mean anything from economic protectionism to war.

[Dave]

This was the pattern in Germany and Japan, in both of which, economic downturn spelled a sharp turn to the right, nationalism, and the aspiration by local elites to achieve their independence from the global economy by carving out their own empires.

Germany was already the most modern country in Europe, and Japan didn't suffer economic downturn.

[Ombrageux]

Japan suffered terribly during the Great Depression as exports to the U.S. were cut to nothing. The will to make themselves independent from such global economic swings was one of the major reasons for the Japanese attempt to conquer Asia and create a self-sufficient regional order. Germany was easily the most modern in Europe, which is precisely my point. The country had been essentially composed of two pieces: absolutist, rural, Prussia with its militaristic and anti-democratic values, and the vegetables. Within 2 generations it had made leaps and bounds to be the greatest economy in Europe, moves towards a pacific, civil political culture had not kept pace with economic modernization. The dislocation caused by the Depression was the proximate cause for Adolf Hitler's rise to power.

[Eauz]

Japan suffered terribly during the Great Depression as exports to the U.S. were cut to nothing.

The major difference here though is that the world is a very different place today than it was before and China now has large investment and international companies around the world. Japan never was involved in places like Africa (resources) or the Middle-East. China, despite the current economic problems, probably won't see much else than a few minor riots and such, especially since they have built up a reliable and strong middle-class. China has had riots and protests in the past that have been destroyed and now no one really talks about them, they are more interested in the latest technology that was created. The Chinese middle-class has for the most part created a cushion between any riots and the state. I'll suspect that a number of those workers will become disgruntled but a number of them have become proper wage-slaves in themselves and will seek whatever employment they can find (or return to their family homes) as opposed to joining mass demonstrations.